The question of recognition

“There are no permanent friends and foes; only permanent national interests”. This may sound selfish and parochial but it is precisely what governs international relations in general. As national interests change, so do friends and foes in the international arena and one should be prepared to adjust to the objective conditions on ground. Cursing others for what they do is of no use (and may be sometime counter-productive) if one has lost vitality and relevance in the given situation. Moral precepts also do not move far beyond rhetoric in a world defined and dictated by material considerations.

The question of whether or not to recognise Israel has resurrected again in public discourse in Pakistan with no rational answer thanks to emotional attachment to the cause of Palestine developed over the years. The UAE’s strategic decision to normalise relations with Israel was the first major departure from what seemed to be a united stand of the Arab world since the 1967 war. What this may have prompted is partly driven by a different vision for the Middle East.

Prior to the 1979 revolution in Iran, the entire Gulf region was one voice against the expansionist project of Israel and always extended full support to Palestine in its struggle against an occupying power. Israel depended on the West, particularly the US, for its security and political legitimacy. The Iranian revolution, paradoxically antagonising the West, proved a blessing in disguise for Israel.

Following the revolution in Iran, a historical rift between Shia and Sunni sects, which had lost much of its meaning and importance in public life for many centuries, resurrected itself with more fervour on both sides reshaping the political landscape. Saudi Arabia, blessed with wealth and influence after 1960s, assumed leadership role in promoting the Salafi brand of Islam to contain Iran within its borders.

As of today, the Saudi-Iran rivalry has helped Israel in making friends in the Arab world. The US, under President Trump, made all-out efforts to punish Iran through economic sanctions but most importantly through increased collaboration between Israel and the Arab countries. The UAE-Israel deal is actually an avowed expression of the convergence of strategic interests between the two countries. The more Iran tries to project itself as a regional power, the more is the likelihood of Israel-Arabs bond getting stronger.

In all this reconfiguration of the Middle East, Israel, while earnestly seeking strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia and others, never compromises on its core national interests. The idea of two-state solution for resolving the Palestinian conflict does not seem to be relevant anymore. Israel is pushing forward with settlements and annexations with no intention of giving Palestinians their legitimate rights. The vulnerabilities of the Arab countries have made Israel an irresistible occupier.

The most obvious and key vulnerability of most Arab countries is the absence of public representation in governments. Dynastic rule, being the norm throughout the region, has not only happened to be unaccountable and arguably prodigal, has manifested itself in disenfranchisement of the whole population. The marginalised classes are always prone to manipulation by external powers and this is what makes the war-by-proxies an instrument of choice against established monarchies.

In this tug-of-war between Iran and the Saudi-led Arab countries, Israel would continue to expand rather than contract politically, geographically, and economically. Unlike Turkey, Egypt and Jordan, the UAE would prove as a catalyst in normalisation of Arab-Israel relationship. It is only a matter of time when Saudi Arabia, too, will fall in line thanks to its internal political dynamics and persistent pressure by the US to come closer to Israel as a bulwark against Iran.

All these developments in the Middle East leave Pakistan in a moral dilemma. Its founding father had decreed that Israel could not be recognised without Palestinians given their political rights. Pakistan’s official position so far is a reflection of the public sentiments and the Quaid’s stance on Israel. However, it would become more and more difficult for Pakistan to resist pressure from different quarters following the flight of Arab countries towards Israel one after the other. Let us hope our economic woes do not make us blind to our moral obligations!

Published in The Express Tribune, June 8^th, 2022.

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