Balochistan is the biggest province of Pakistan located in a ‘geopolitical crush zone’. This province carries a geo-economic and geostrategic importance for Pakistan and a positive and timely exploitation of this importance could be immensely beneficial. Balochistan shares a border with Iran and Afghanistan; and via Afghanistan, it connects the country with Central Asian Republics (CARs). And via Arabian Sea, the province can also link up Pakistan with a number of countries in the Indian Ocean region for trade and economic activities.
From Peter the Great of the Russian Empire, Great Britain, the Soviet Union and the contemporary leading power, the United States, all had strategic interest in this part of the world. The Russians, in particular, were interested in reaching the warm waters for geopolitical and geo-economic reasons. Many scholars on geopolitical and geostrategic studies potentially highlight the significance of Balochistan because of such imperatives.
Arguably, the province of Balochistan becomes one of the largest conduit regions both for landlocked Afghanistan and CARs that are interested in selling their products to the Middle Eastern countries via Balochistan. Simultaneously, it is also significant for Pakistan to attract the CARs through a peaceful Afghanistan. With the regional rise of China, the centrality of Balochistan in international politics is getting further enhanced as China attempts to develop regional connectivity through Pakistan, more particularly through the Gwadar Deep Sea Port. In addition to Gwadar Port, other major sea ports such as the Karachi Port and Port Qasim are equally important for Pakistan. The imperatives of cooperation and competition rather than a strategy of containment can ensure peace, stability and prosperity in the broader South Asia region where each stakeholder takes benefit out of such proposed regional connectivity.
However, along with the struggle for regional connectivity while ensuring prosperity in the region, the geopolitical and geo-economic challenges remain paramount. The regional rise of China with its grand strategy of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is largely perceived to be a threat to its regional rival India and more especially to the predominance of the US in the Asia-Pacific region.
Therefore, along with cooperation and competition, major powers adopt containment strategies. In this context, the US and its closer Asian allies are making all efforts to contain China’s rise through QUAD and AUKUS while China attempts to integrate economically as many Asian countries, including Pakistan, as it can to neutralise the US strategy of offshore balancing. Thus, along with cooperation and competition, the strategy of containment between the major powers may continue to accelerate further. Many fear that the struggle between these imperatives could create a security dilemma that in turn could produce serious military conflicts between these powers, which could have security repercussions for Pakistan. Broadly, the rise of China along with the BRI; the US offshore balancing strategy; India’s military and nuclear modernisation along with it outreach to Indian-Ocean Region through Chabahar Port as a counter to Gwadar Port; regional connectivity and strategy of cooperation, competition and containment; reflect how significant Pakistan and more importantly its biggest province Balochistan becomes in the international politics.
Therefore, Pakistan needs to catch up with the fast evolving dynamics between the major powers affecting Pakistan and Balochistan. Cashing out maximum advantages to the best possible benefit of Pakistan becomes the order of the day. Moreover, Pakistan needs to focus on resolving local issues such as scarcity of water, insecurity, mismanagement of education, unemployment, bad governance, corruption and many other longstanding problems facing the people of Balochistan. Failing this, there is a danger that the people of Balochistan could get badly exploited by both internal and external forces working against the vital interest of Pakistan.
Opportunities and challenges become part and parcel of Balochistan which is struggling to cope with them. However, due to its strategic value, the very essence of geopolitical and geostrategic imperative is still alive and because of these imperatives bolstered by the overarching significance of this province, many problems that Balochistan confronts today can be addressed if things are timely and efficiently manipulated to the supreme interest of this province and the country at large. In its supreme national interest, Pakistan needs to evolve a strategy embraced with balanced approaches while maintaining better relations with all the responsible stakeholders both within the regional and beyond.
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