A war without winners

Ever since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war, neither side has been able to claim victory. Both sides miscalculated each other’s military tactics, strategy and morale, resulting in a continued stand-off. This is the first war Europe has witnessed after almost 30 years of peace. War in former Yugoslavia continued from 1992 to 1995, after which the Dayton Peace Agreement, mediated by US President Bill Clinton, was reached in December 1995. But the war in Ukraine involves a major power that has lost 15,000 of its soldiers in the last three months without achieving the desired result.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who prides himself on trying to restore Russia’s past prestige and glory, is bewildered at his strategic failure to occupy Ukraine. Equipped with nuclear and conventional weapons and ranked as the world’s second most powerful military, Russia is now bogged down in its own backyard. Its enormous energy resources and foreign exchange reserves of $600 billion along with a population of 146 million people is now experiencing Ukraine as its bleeding wound. On the other hand, Ukraine is being assisted by its Western allies, particularly the US, with around $40 billion of economic, humanitarian and military aid. Will significant Western assistance along with sanctions on Russia help tilt the balance in favour of Ukraine and result in Moscow’s defeat? Or will it be a war without winners? Will Russia be compelled to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine? How will escalations further aggravate the global economy, particularly the prices of oil, food and supply chain?

The poor performance of the Russian army tends to further boost the morale of the Ukrainian people who exposed the myth of Putin’s Russia. An editorial titled ‘How Rotten is Russian Army?’ published on April 30 in The Economist argues, “The might of the modern Russian army was supposed to show the world that President Vladimir Putin had restored his country to greatness after the humiliation of the Soviet collapse. Instead, poor progress and heavy losses in Ukraine have exposed deep flows within Russia. For those threatened by Mr. Putin’s aggression, a diminished army is a relief.” If the myth of the Russian army has been shattered, the expectation that Ukrainian forces armed with Western military assistance will give a bloody nose to Russia is a foregone conclusion. From any standpoint, the West is using Ukraine to test its weapons and revitalise its military industrial complex.

It is further stated in The Economist: “So far the invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster for Russia’s armed forces. About 15,000 troops have been killed in two months of fighting, according to Britain’s government. At least, 1,600 armored vehicles have been destroyed, along with dozens of aircraft and the flagship of the Black Sea fleet. The assault on the capital, Kyiv was a chaotic failure.” This means that, like Afghanistan, Ukraine is becoming another graveyard for Russia. In its 10 years of military intervention in Afghanistan, the then Soviet Union, a mighty superpower, lost around 20,000 soldiers. But in just two months’ time, Russia, a successor state of the USSR, has lost 15,000 soldiers in Ukraine. The figure is almost equal to US/allied casualties in Afghanistan from October 2001 till the US military withdrawal in August 2021. But the price of Russian humiliation in Ukraine will be enormous as it will not only devastate its economy but also its ability to undergo another foreign adventure in its backyard. If the interests of the West have converged on Ukraine; Russia, despite getting obscure Chinese support, is now vulnerable to experience enormous military and economic losses if its forces are further bogged down in Ukraine.

One can explore two major realities about this unending stand-off and its implications on Europe and the world at large.

One; diplomacy and mediation which help in the mitigation of conflict are not functioning to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. In the first month of Russian aggression over Ukraine, talks in Byelorussia were held between officials of the two countries but remained inconclusive. With the intensification of the war and the use of colossal military force by Russia against Ukraine, prospects for mediation have diminished. The US game plan to plunge Russia in the Ukrainian quagmire worked and led to military embarrassment for Moscow as it failed to occupy a single major city in the country. Allegations of massive human rights violation by Russian forces in their occupied areas of Ukraine further hardened the position of Kyiv.

Two; since Russia has a veto power in the UN Security Council, UN was unable to play a decisive role to end the war in Ukraine. General Assembly resolutions against the Russian invasion of Ukraine failed to exert pressure over Moscow. Since EU and NATO are supporting Ukraine, Moscow’s insecurity has deepened. Furthermore, in this backdrop, two neutral Nordic countries, Finland and Sweden, are ready to join NATO which will further encircle Russia from the Baltic side. The strategic assessment of NATO – that the only way to contain Russia and block its aggressive designs is by enlarging the horizon of the Atlantic alliance – has further antagonised Moscow.

Ironically, Turkey as a key member of NATO has expressed its reservations on admitting Finland and Sweden in the fold of the Atlantic alliance because it believes that these two Nordic countries are unable to take a decisive position against terrorist organisations. If Finland and Sweden join NATO, it means that Austria and Switzerland are the only two states left in Europe with declared neutrality. According to AFP news agency, “Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Finland and Sweden on May 16 to expect a response for applying to join NATO.” Furthermore, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov termed the decision of Sweden and Norway to join NATO as a “grave mistake with far reaching consequences.” Needless to say the war in Ukraine has unleashed another phase of cold war between Russia and the West.

Unfortunately, armed conflicts will continue unless the two sides agree to an honourable resolution based on the unconditional withdrawal of Russian forces and guarantees of Kyiv’s neutrality by not joining NATO. The West must stop intervening in Ukraine, and Russia should provide compensation of material and physical losses incurred by Ukraine since its attack on February 24.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 22^nd, 2022.

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