What future holds for Afghanistan?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has diverted global attention from Afghanistan, and the Taliban government is left to fend for itself. There is also a general fatigue among major powers, especially the US, about Afghanistan. It had been directly engaged militarily in the country for nearly twenty years from October 2001 to August 30, 2021. It took a heavy toll on American lives, and the financial cost of the war was staggering. According to the figures available, US servicemen killed in Afghanistan were 2,448 and 3,846 those who were employed as US contractors. The Afghan military’s losses were 66,000 men in uniform and 46,000 civilians had lost their lives in the conflict and a staggering number wounded and disabled during this period, according to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan. As of April 2021, more than 71,000 Afghan and Pakistani civilians are estimated to have died as a direct result of the war. Despite the support provided to the Ghani government, the Taliban clearly emerged militarily as the winner and established their writ over the whole of Afghanistan.

A quick recall of these events was to bring into focus to what extent Afghanistan has suffered and regrettably continues to do so. The intransigence of Taliban leadership not to show any flexibility in their extremely conservative policies, particularly in respect of women, has resulted in inviting a host of sanctions from the US and the EU which bars them from receiving aid. Afghanistan today is politically isolated, economically the government is sanctioned and not officially recognised even by its immediate neighbours including Pakistan and China. Although China and Pakistan would like to assist Afghanistan but security and political issues are coming in the way of their extending greater level of cooperation. Afghanistan is also burdened with huge refugee and drug problems. These are aggravated due to its dismal state of economy and international isolation. Trade prospects between Afghanistan and Pakistan and neighbouring countries will only pick up when Afghanistan economy stabilises. About 60 per cent of the Afghan population faces the prospect of facing severe food shortages that could result in mass hunger and deprivation.

But the Taliban leadership’s response has been of defiance with no let-up on any of their strict Islamic code of conduct. They have reconciled to being isolated and maintaining minimum contact with the outside world. It appears as though they have unburdened themselves of any shackles that come from being a normal member of the world community. According to their thinking human rights and women’s rights are foreign concepts. Particularly disturbing is their indifference and denial of girl’s education and enforcing strict seclusion and segregation of women in society. From their perspective the entire struggle was after all to establish a state modelled on their understanding of Islamic Sharia. In short, they are the prisoners of their ideology. They have become an ideological island pursuing an agenda that conforms to their retrogressive thinking. For the Taliban it is ideology versus international goodwill being rewarded in the form of a more supportive assistance program. To gain international acceptability they posed to have changed but the façade was short lived. The question arises: is it tenable to maintain such an isolationist policy for too long especially when the economy is unable to sustain more than 50 to 60 per cent of the population? It is also not clear what is brewing in the minds of all those groups and people — men and women — who had tasted both power and freedom now stifled, brooding and waiting for an opportunity to reassert themselves. Moreover, Afghanistan’s retreat into a shell of their own making sustainable for long? How is the national trauma that Afghans suffered going to be healed? Or international indifference and primary focus of US and West on Ukraine give Taliban the respite to pursue their agenda unhindered?

The Chinese government’s support to the Taliban regime is invaluable. China was never in favour of the democratic transformation of Afghanistan and believes it brought instability and chaos in the state and misery and hardship for its people and the region. However, China like Pakistan has been advising the Taliban leadership to form a broad-based and inclusive government. China is also apprehensive that if Afghanistan government does not take appropriate measures the fight against terrorism would be considerably weakened.

What are the implications of Taliban ideology on Pakistan’s polity, especially on less developed and adjoining region of erstwhile FATA and Balochistan? Equally disturbing, since the last few months there has been an increase in cross border attacks in K-P and Baluchistan from Afghanistan. The TTP, Balochistan Liberation Army and IS-Khorasan are largely involved in these incidents. What is most disconcerting is that the Taliban government despite Pakistan’s urgings looks the other way to TTP brazen attacks on Pakistan territory and treats them as comrades in arms. The committee which was formed by a jirga in South Waziristan to facilitate talks between Pakistan Army and TTP has not made any significant breakthrough apart from short-term ceasefire agreements. It is also questionable whether it is a wise move to engage with TTP considering their anti-state agenda and wider goals of challenging the authority of the state and spreading their ideology.

The indifference or inability of Taliban government in Afghanistan to act against IS-Khorasan group has wider implications as it has seriously upset China, Russia, Pakistan and Central Asian States. Tension between the Taliban government and Pakistan will create greater space for militant groups in Afghanistan and also encourage India to exploit the situation. This would be an unfortunate development as Pakistan expects that the Taliban leadership would ensure that there are no cross-border raids, and groups engaged in hostile activities against Pakistan are kept under strict scrutiny.

Whereas Pakistan does not have the level of influence over the Taliban that it initially enjoyed but the international community expects that it uses its leverage to make them respect fundamental rights and fulfill counter terrorism commitments.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 18^th, 2022.

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