Institutional meltdown?

Pakistan’s brief existence as a nation has been tumultuous. As a ‘frontline’ state during the Cold War and the war on terrorism, it oscillates between military rule and democratically elected administrations, secular policies and financial support.

The current political mess is unique in that it involves collapse of all of Pakistan’s key institutions. The civil service, which had historically weathered political storms, is now in jeopardy. The bureaucracy has been further tarnished by the fact that it failed to provide any important policy or services throughout the PTI rule. Meanwhile, our diplomatic service is in turmoil, with our ambassadors all over the world being weakened by the letter stunt.

Few institutions have escaped the political slaughter of recent weeks, including the courts, domestic intelligence services and the National Security Committee. But what about the citizens of this country? What happens when 220 million people are confronted with the humiliating truth that their institutions are dysfunctional and their politicians are merely self-serving?

Pakistanis will be left with unpleasant options when the truth of the institutional implosion settles in: resignation, resistance or revolution. More resistance and more revolution are anticipated to emerge in the next few years, intensifying trends that are already present but will acquire traction, potentially destabilising the situation: more resistance, more revolution. Social and political protest movements are likely to be used as a form of resistance. That appeal will come from religious, political and violent extremist groups that want to overturn the current system and replace it with a religiously motivated dispensation that will be presented as the necessary cleansing force to clear the country of thieves and dysfunctional institutions.

Pakistan could have more instability in the corridor of power, which would make it more difficult for the new government to govern effectively. The nature of the current crisis in Pakistan is distinctive from comparable crises in the past. Political parties once competed for military support and even conspired. They don’t make it that easy anymore. Calls from implicit sources behind the scenes have also stopped. Massive insults towards Imran Khan’s mismanagement were directed at the security establishment. The inability to implement various ‘hybrid’ models is increasingly questioned by critical critics of Pakistani civil society. Establishment is aware of this basic mood in responding to the rapidly changing domestic political situation. New instability is feared in the coming days, making the job of effective governance difficult.

Now, the ruling coalition has to dispel scepticism and meet the expectations of the public that yearns for stability. Pakistan’s new government has come to power in a deeply divided country. The political polarisation in evidence today has few parallels in Pakistan’s recent history, with social media amplifying the divide and giving it an inflammatory edge. In this politically criticised environment where angry parties refuse to accept the loss of power, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif takes on a sea of challenges before he can lead the country to a safer coast.

The PM’s greatest challenge and top priority is to stabilise a deeply ailing economy. Pakistan’s chronic fiscal and current account deficits are at a record high, foreign exchange reserves have been depleted, the rupee is under pressure, inflation has soared and debt has risen exponentially. The energy crisis is also set to worsen this summer.

Critical tests lie ahead for the ruling coalition. It must show that it can persist and govern, survive the struggling economy, ease scepticism about ‘Purana’ Pakistan and meet the public longing for stable and effective governance.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 2^nd, 2022.

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