The recent events in Afghanistan have once again raised alarm over the Taliban regime’s ability to provide security and establish peace in the country. On 23rd April, a deadly blast tore through a mosque in Afghanistan’s northern city of Kunduz killing more than 30 worshipers. This was followed by a second consecutive attack on a mosque on Friday, 29th April, in which more than 50 worshippers lost their lives. Despite receiving humanitarian and economic support from Pakistan, the Taliban government has failed to rein in the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from carrying out attacks. The tribal areas of North Waziristan close to the Afghan border have suffered from attacks at regular intervals in which many Pakistani soldiers have died.
The Taliban have been in power for nearly nine months now; however, they have remained unable to gain international recognition and are now growing frustrated. Although Pakistan, Beijing and Moscow appeared to have had a soft corner for the Taliban and made efforts to legitimise the Afghan government globally, their efforts have gone in vain. One reason for this is that the Taliban have failed to comply with the Doha accord and have refused to empower women by providing them with education and employment opportunities, thus denying 50% of the Afghan population equal rights. The Taliban regime has remained adamant in its ideology and taken a highly ultra-conservative approach, which is deepening both regional and international isolation. Consequently, there has been little political and diplomatic progress in Afghanistan.
A few days ago, the Afghan government expressed their agitation to the Pakistani Ambassador to Kabul over Islamabad’s alleged interference. However, it is Pakistan that has been suffering from constant attacks from Afghanistan, which led to many casualties. Afghanistan has failed to address the issue and has only given verbal assurances to Pakistan. Pakistan even went as far as facilitating a shipment of 50,000 tons of wheat from India via the Wagah border as a goodwill gesture. Yet the Taliban government has continued to blame Islamabad for interference. This demonstrates that there has been no paradigm shift in Afghanistan in terms of hostility with Pakistan despite a regime change. Otherwise, the Taliban regime would not have threatened Pakistan with removing the barbed wire fence like its predecessors and ignored the security arrangement to divide people into both sides of the Durand Line.
Despite its assurances, why has Kabul failed to rein in TTP, which is responsible for launching countless terrorist attacks across Pakistan? Is the nexus between the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban responsible for destabilising the law and order situation in the tribal areas of Pakistan?
This then shows that Pakistan misjudged the outcome of the US military withdrawal and subsequent Taliban takeover. Historically, the Taliban have never been grateful or receptive to the gestures of Islamabad. It appears that regardless of who is in power in Kabul, the Afghan mindset will always be hostile towards Pakistan.
This raises the question of how to deal with the ‘Afghan problem’ and how can Pakistan save itself from the repercussions of violence and terrorism in Afghanistan? One can contemplate three options that Pakistan can utilise when dealing with the ‘Afghan problem’.
First, given Pakistan’s bitter experiences with Afghanistan since 1947, Pakistan should completely disengage from Afghanistan’s internal affairs. Regardless of allegations against Pakistan of playing a negative role during the Afghan Jihad, which led to the fragmentation of the state and society, Islamabad has made a lot of efforts to help the Afghan people overcome the deteriorating socio-economic issues. Pakistan accommodated more than 3 million Afghan refugees and experienced sectarian violence along with the proliferation of drugs and gun culture. Even after the US withdrawal, Pakistan has continued its humanitarian support for Afghanistan. A complete disengagement will mean that Pakistan only provides Afghanistan with humanitarian assistance and distances itself on other issues. This is the only way for the two countries to maintain some cordiality and avoid further hostilities.
Second, supporting the Taliban regime will be counterproductive for Pakistan because the international community will hold Pakistan in a negative light. Despite criticism, Pakistan has already gone the extra mile to engage with the Taliban regime, which has been purposeless as Pakistan continues to face attacks periodically. The Taliban regime has blatantly violated the Doha accord and demonstrated insensitivity toward women’s rights, democracy and political pluralism. Resultantly, none of the member states of the United Nations has granted de jure recognition to the Taliban regime, which reflects the credit crisis and poor image of the Taliban. Therefore, Pakistan should coordinate with the international community when dealing with Afghanistan.
Finally, all the stakeholders in Pakistan must form a consensus over revitalising the country’s Afghan policy based on cautious disengagement. This policy should focus on dealing with threats emanating from Afghanistan, which can affect Pakistan’s national security. Those at the helm of affairs in Islamabad need to analyse where Afghanistan is headed and realise how it may further destabilise Pakistan in the days to come through a wave of violence and terrorism.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 1st, 2022.
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