The marriage of convenience and beyond

On 10^th April, Imran Khan was removed as Prime Minister through a vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly. This would not have been possible without the heterogeneous opposition parties entering a marriage of convenience. With the opposition’s success in removing their common enemy, now the ability of the opposition to sustain this marriage is being questioned. Cracks will likely begin to appear soon in the rank and file of the grand coalition, which is primarily composed of PPP, PML-N, JUI-F, MQM and other parties.

Pakistan’s political history is littered with break-ups of alliances after the removal of a common enemy. Alliances composed of diverse political parties against Ayub Khan, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Ziaul Haq and Pervez Musharraf disintegrated when these personalities lost power. Back in 2008, PML-N agreed to form a coalition government with the PPP. However, with the resignation of President Musharraf in August 2008, PML-N withdrew from the coalition government because of disagreements and reverted to politics of confrontation.

Earlier this year, alarmists in PPP, PML-N and JUI-F had begun suggesting that Imran Khan would not abandon his “arrogant, intransigent, vindictive, authoritarian, parochial and power-centric” approach and they should strike before he curbs the media and his political opponents and controls vital state institutions. However, the question was how to remove him because all previous attempts to achieve that target had failed. Asif Ali Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto entered into negotiations with Shehbaz Sharif in Lahore some time back with an aim to muster support of other parties for a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan. Earlier PML-N had been reluctant to join hands with the PPP without first agreeing on a number game. However, both the parties were compelled to join forces out of the fear that Imran Khan would appoint his trustee as army chief ahead of November — when the serving army chief would retire — as part of his strategy to ensure an electoral triumph in the 2023 vote.

It was the conviction of the PPP and PML-N as well as persistent political manoeuvring that enabled them to finally move the no-confidence motion against the PM in the National Assembly. Prior to this, they had to undertake significant lobbying to muster the magical number — 172. They sought support from PTI’s allies in the National Assembly, including PML-Q, MQM, BAP and others. They also persuaded the non-conformist members of the PTI who felt bitter and let down because of the behaviour of Imran Khan.

The rank and file of PPP, PML-N and other opposition parties were convinced that Prime Minister Imran Khan has gotten weak as he was no more on the same page with establishment which had supported him all along his tenure. The level of support that Imran Khan received from the country’s most powerful institution was unprecedented since the very beginning. However, later on, Prime Minister Imran lost the confidence of the institution’s top brass, having fallen out on important matters.

The PTI government’s poor governance, a deepening economic crisis, selective accountability and non-conformist elements in the media led to the erosion of the ‘one-page’ phenomenon. Frequent U-turns, foreign policy blunders and an unnecessary confrontation with the West compelled the strong pillars of power to reconsider providing further space to Imran Khan. It was Khan’s arrogance, ego-centric approach, lack of political wisdom and tunnel vision on critical domestic and foreign policy issues that provided redemption to the once discredited opposition parties. Had he been humble, polite, wise and shrewd in dealing with his political opponents instead of addressing them with derogatory words like rats, boot polishers, diesel, etc, he would have completed his term with grace. However, he was surrounded by a bunch of sycophants and lost insight into the ground realities, which provided the opposition with ample opportunities to strike back and oust him from power.

Now that Shehbab Sharif has replaced Imran Khan as head of the government, the million dollar question is: how long will this government last? Will this marriage of convenience work or will it transform into a marriage of inconvenience? Let’s analyse the situation from two angles.

First, never ever in the history of Pakistan has a government — composed of such diverse elements — come into power. In fact, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s position is more fragile compared to Imran Khan’s. This assortment of political parties can only be successful if the country’s interests are prioritised. Otherwise, this too will be added to the long list of failed political marriages of convenience.

Second, the government may survive if the PTI remains a cogent threat to PML-led coalition because of the threat perception that Imran Khan is not a dead horse. However, if PTI keeps a low profile and concentrates on learning lessons from its failures, cracks within the ruling coalition may reappear soon, eventually leading to a breakup. The PTI leadership must adopt political wisdom, particularly its chairman Imran Khan must abandon politics of altercation and agitation and refocus on strengthening his party to perform better in the upcoming elections. Paradoxically, his narrative of an American conspiracy to dislodge his government through the no-confidence motion and calling opposition parties traitors will work against him and instead strengthen the coalition government.

Predictably, it will not be possible for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to sustain his coalition government as internal contradictions within the rank and file of the united opposition will soon appear. MQM, PPP, and Baloch MNAs will certainly pose a big challenge to the sustenance of the Shehbaz Sharif government. Given this scenario, one cannot help but wonder who will recognise and address the issues facing the masses.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 17^th, 2022.

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