Pakistan… beware!

The revelry in parliament is finally over and the nation relieved from the strain of high drama during the holy month of Ramazan. However, it leaves behind a lot of emotional, legal and political debris, waiting to be cleaned by the cabal of ‘Combined Opposition’, that is not likely to remain combined, once the distribution of power, positions, perks and privileges start. The end of the saga was ugly to say the least, and that needs deeper introspection by ‘all’ stakeholders professing to love Pakistan, its people and its institutions, and going sleepless to serve its unfortunate state.

The emotional consequence from the rubble is the ‘light weight’ that most stalwarts carry. The below-average conduct and language of the discourse, and the lack of decency and values in the entire crisis are stark and unpleasant realities. So was the mad rush to grab power at all costs, and the no scruples and morals in doing so.

Today the young Pakistan has no role models but one. Role model(s) — on the other side of the political divide — is the unfortunate casualty of this political battle. The motely crowd of opposition was/is held together by greed and ‘bughz-e-Moavia’ and not ‘hub-e-Ali’.

The ‘dangerous’ emotional consequence is the division in our body politic, with entrenched and hardened positions. And these divisions today run deeper through lower, middle and upper middle-class Pakistan. And this has happened for the second time in our history after independence; the first being the mass/middle-class mobilisation by ZA Bhutto in the 1960s. One wonders if the present demagogue, Imran Khan, would follow Mr Bhutto’s legacy of returning with a vengeance, like Bhutto did after the humiliation of Miltablishment in 1971. Miltablishment again, perceptually at least, stands bruised.

Loss of hope and despair are the other consequences of this high drama. After repeated turns by PML-N and PPP to run affairs of Pakistan, PTI was tried as an experimental aberration. The experiment was abandoned halfway by the ‘experimenters’, given the abysmal state of governance by IK/PTI, precarious state of our economy, IK’s constant squabbling over petty issues and his poor working relations with other stakeholders. The straw that broke the camel’s back was a foreign policy not to the liking of the global movers and shakers.

The ‘Third Option’ did not deliver; it did not even have a finance minister of its own and never had enough experienced cadre to effectively govern. Most people swayed towards this option initially, because this was an untainted option with Islamist, Pakistani and nationalist credentials. However, if ‘Street’ is any guide, that ‘dream’ has morphed into ‘hope’, which resurrects in different manner.

Politically, the impasse made the country stand on one leg, that of judiciary, rather than the traditionally more stable three legs of executive, legislature and judiciary alongside a watchful media and Miltablishment. The sovereignty of Parliament is ‘perceptually’ hostage to the Supreme Court because of the expedient interpretations of the Constitution of Pakistan, where the Court dictates to the elected Parliament. Without self-claiming any expertise whatsoever, the constitutional experts are pointing at the judiciary’s extra constitutional over-reach and its far-reaching negative implications.

In this unfortunate national divide, the rulers/stakeholders stand on the opposite side from the general public. Until the general elections provide a clear mandate and does so sooner, agitation seems to be the norm. PTI knows the value of going to the people, and public mood seems uncompromising.

The alliance of political convenience (Combined Opposition in Government) is likely to fail sans unpleasant compromises and accommodations. If IK with the largest PTI numbers in Parliaments plus a handful coalition partners, subscribing to his political ideology, could not hold together; failure of this motely crowd of numerous opposition parties with nothing in common ideologically, politically and morally, plus a long history of mutual animosity, is a writing on the wall.

On surface, the situation gives larger clout to the Miltablishment to interfere in future political impasses to break deadlocks and develop consensus; however, under intense and ‘unwarranted’ criticism on social media, it also suffers from fatigue, resignation and badly bruised reputation. Till the change of guard in November 2022 at least, the refrain of ‘neutrality’ and being ‘apolitical’, would keep even modest interlocution in check. ‘Nurtured, promoted, facilitated and abandoned half-way’ is a difficult lesson and a sad legacy.

And after the en-masse resignations of PTI, the foreseeable scenario would be of a lopsided Parliament versus the Street. Hence, instability seems to be the operative environment.

At institutional level, NAB is likely to be defanged and justice is to be ‘upheld’ by shutting the laboriously prepared corruption cases against the ruling clique. Electoral reforms, in particular the use of Electronic Voting Machine (EVM), are likely to be shelved as EVM gives edge to PTI by facilitating expat Pakistanis, Imran’s vote bank. CPEC might get some needed fillip domestically; but its extension to Afghanistan is not going to go far, as the global movers and shakers do not want China to fill the vacuum in that country.

Sad to see our polity moving about in circles of dynastic politics with the likes of filibustering Bilawals, Hamzas and Maryams, enjoying unparalleled importance just for being the scions of political families, rather than any personal ability, merit and/or performance. And hapless Pakistan waiting for the inevitability of ‘governance experiments’ by these young dynasts, at the cost of Pakistan. But then for the powers that be, it is easier controlling Pakistan through the elite — ashhrafiyya — rather than the unruly public.

But then maybe, we all are deaf-toned to the sound of youthful Pakistan, marching from the shadows, turning every political analysis and every prediction upside down… except the inevitable yearning of every dispossessed Pakistani, that Pakistan needs to be reclaimed and freed from bitches of the riches.

The Street is increasingly louder in demanding a Pakistan that is not rudderless; a Pakistan with a direction; a Pakistan that provides decency, prestige and livability to its citizenry; a Pakistan that is able to choose its friends strictly in line with its national interests; a Pakistan respected abroad and partner in global peace.

Each day rises with hope, and hopes inspire, and inspiration may gel the potential of over 220 million people. The pulse is unusual and I see IT-enabled, media-savvy youth bulge on the move. This wave is lasting…Pakistan beware!

Published in The Express Tribune, April 14^th, 2022.

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