BrahMos misadventure: accidental or deliberate?
The writer is an Assistant Research Associate at IPRI, Islamabad. He tweets @FaizanFakhar6
As a wayward projectile made its way into Pakistani airspace from across the divide, it was a reality check of our security conscience. Though India came up with an apologetic statement terming it a malfunction of its defence gear, it has raised serious questions on its credibility, supervision and safety of military command and control, as well as its arsenal.
To look into its trajectory, on 9th March, 2022, a high-speed flying object breached the international borders of Pakistan and remained in the airspace of Pakistan for more than 3mins and 44 seconds before crashing inside Pakistan. The object covered a distance of approximately 124 km in the territory of Pakistan. DG ISPR Maj Gen Babar Iftikhar confirmed that it was a supersonic Indian BrahMos missile, claimed to be one of the fastest cruise missiles in the world.
Indian BrahMos crashing in Pakistan’s territory, after an extended period of flight, is alarming and must be analysed from every angle. There could be two possible explanations related to this event: technical malfunction or deliberate design.
India, belatedly however, came up with an official statement, saying it was due to “accidental firing” caused by “a technical malfunction” in the “course of routine maintenance”.
Even if it was a technical malfunction, it raises many questions on the Indian competence to handle high-end weapons, which are nuclear capable. Similar concerns were also raised by NSA Moeed Yusuf. In the nuclearised environment of South Asia, an accidental firing of nuclear capable BrahMos is highly risky since it is technically difficult for any available detection system to ascertain whether the incoming missile is armed with a payload or not. Moreover, with such high-speed missiles, it is highly challenging to intercept such projectiles in air. So, the missile being out of control of its handlers could have prompted Pakistan to interpret it as a nuclear attack, resulting in catastrophe, if Pakistan had decided to respond while the missile was still in air. However, being a responsible nuclear state, Pakistan demonstrated commendable caution and restraint.
In a stark contrast to Indian media and institutions, Pakistan took due time to assess the situation before making it public and did not resort to war hysteria and jingoism towards India. Moreover, as stated in The Express Tribune editorial (13th March), with a history of lapses in nuclear safety as well as toxic material on sale, the possibility of nuclear terrorism becomes more pertinent with this event.
India has been seeking to ‘normalize’ limited ‘surgical’ strikes with Pakistan. This can be observed by the increasingly aggressive posture of India and its excessive military modernization, especially for the past two decades. The claimed Indian surgical strike (2016) and post-Pulwama attack on Pakistan (2019) also exemplified the aggressive posture of India. Therefore, there is a credible chance of this event being a deliberate design given the growing pattern of military aggression by India towards Pakistan.
With the election of the hyper nationalist BJP, the entire dynamics of Indian politics have now tilted towards political rhetoric and warmongering. On 18th February, 2022, Yogi Adityanath, the current CM of Uttar Pradesh, explicitly stated, “BrahMos hub Lucknow will smile in the next surgical strike”, indicating that the supersonic BrahMos will be weapon of choice for a surgical strike against Pakistan.
Given the highly tense environment of South Asia, such statements from prominent political figures add to the suspicion — of this event being a calculated move by India. If this was indeed a deliberate Indian design, the motivations could be multi-faceted, such as: to use it as a test case for a future limited conventional strike with narrow objective through supersonic missiles; to test India’s own capabilities for an eventual first strike against Pakistan; and to test the threshold Pakistan’s ‘full spectrum’ deterrence.
There is no mutual pre-notification agreement in place on cruise missiles between India and Pakistan, as of now. The onus lies on India to not only conduct a transparent investigation of the event but also take measures to place robust measures of weapons security and safety. Moreover, the international community should also take notice of this event in order to avoid any disaster in the future.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 23rd, 2022.
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