Russian invasion of Ukraine and the world’s response

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, apart from other consequences, has placed Pakistan in a difficult situation as to what position it should take on the conflict. It enjoys good relations with Ukraine and there is a close cooperation between the two countries in the field of defence. Pakistan’s main battle tank, the M-80, is of Ukrainian origin and there are other areas in defence — helicopters, electronics and night vision devices — in which the two militaries have been cooperating. Over the years, trade in agricultural products has increased with Ukraine and fortunately, the Indian factor has been more or less absent while dealing with it. In recent years Pakistan has also considerably improved its relations with Russia. Russian exports to Pakistan consist of edible vegetables, Iron and steel, inorganic chemicals and machinery; and Pakistan exports edible fruits, vegetables, cereals and apparel to Russia. Pakistan is interested in expanding cooperation with Russia in the energy, defence and space sectors and negotiations on the gas pipeline project is in advance stage and Memorandum of Understanding has been signed. With US and Western sanctions and ban on purchases Pakistan would be assessing the fallout of it on these projects.

More significantly, at the strategic level with Russia and China getting even closer and Washington’s relations with Russia highly confrontational and passing through an ominous phase the pressure from US and Western allies on Pakistan is mounting. Their expectation is that Pakistan denounce Russia for committing aggression on Ukraine. Pakistan is opposed to going that far as it is not prepared to get on the wrong side of Russia especially when relations with the US are unpredictable. Moreover, with China having fully embraced Russia and standing firm with it any support in favour of Ukraine would be considered breach of trust. In this situation, Pakistan will continue to tread a difficult balancing act. The morally correct position would have been not to overlook Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. But morality takes a back seat when expediency demands a different approach. The US and the West that are giving lessons in morality only have to recall their aggression in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. The best course for Pakistan would be not to get involved and avoid making unnecessary statements as we are in no position to influence events.

Russia has launched a full-scale deliberate attack on Ukraine with the aim of occupying it. It is destroying Ukraine’s military capabilities and has already captured major cities and others are under siege. The Russian assault on Kyiv and long-range shelling has forced people to flee in large numbers creating a mass exodus and misery. The wounds and suffering caused by the invasion will last for decades. President Putin insists that Ukraine recognise Crimea as Russian territory and commit itself that it will not join NATO. Ukraine is not giving in, for independence is too precious to be compromised. It is hoping to wage a long-drawn war with full backing of the US and its allies. How far it succeeds only time will tell but it is clear that it has provided the US and its allies an opportunity to bleed Russia. Twenty countries would be supplying weapons and equipment to Ukraine in a rare display of unity against Russia’s aggression. With an unprecedented economic squeeze and political pressure President Biden hopes to weaken Russia to a point where its people will question the aggressive policies of President Putin that could destabilise the regime. Fallout of the war is already there as the ruble has taken a steep fall, people are rushing to withdraw money from banks and the stock market has nosedived. What is surprising is that great powers seldom learn from their past mistakes. Russia needs to remember how its military got bogged down in Afghanistan or of the US in Vietnam. Surely, its genuine apprehensions of Ukraine’s tilt toward West could have been addressed through dialogue. Moreover, once again the world would be witnessing a new arms race and a sharp increase in the defence budgets of several countries and the people generally facing the brunt of the diversion.

With the unfolding of these events Pakistan’s economy, already in distress, will face additional pressure due to escalating fuel prices and unsettled global conditions. It is necessary that on sensitive international and national issues politicians and especially the top leadership should avoid off the cuff remarks. We have able and seasoned diplomats whose input should be sought. Deliberate and well thought-out policy remarks or assessments of international and regional developments will carry more weight and reduce possibility of being misunderstood.

Adding to Pakistan woes is the chaotic political situation in which the opposition parties have launched a movement on the streets and through a vote of no-confidence in parliament are hoping to unseat the government. A more mature approach of the opposition would have been to keep the pressure in the parliament and wait for the elections next year to let the people decide. Past experience reminds us that by creating chaos and anarchic conditions the opposition further strengthens the military’s role in politics and sets a precedent for the future opposition to do a replay of it. Besides, Imran Khan has already mentioned that if his government is removed through street demonstrations, he will be more dangerous in the opposition than he is in government. In fact, he too is in full election mode with his usual bombast against the opposition. We are also reminded of the role that Imran Khan played while he was in opposition.

Anarchic conditions have serious consequences for the economy. It would shy away foreign and local investments and seriously affect productivity. But do our politicians foresee the consequences of their disruptive policies and also factor in the increasing hostile and uncertain international environment while they plan their line of action. Irrespective of the outcome of the no-confidence motion with the present quality and substance of discourse the country is in for more chaos and unrest.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 9^th, 2022.

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