What world are we living in

In how Vladimir Putin is moving his chess-pieces on the global mosaic lays bare the limitations power, even absolute power, has. What can be more powerful than a few nuclear weapons from among the 1500 warheads that the US alone holds? Russia in return has around 4500 warheads of varying yields. When none had this weapon save the United States of America and it dropped just a couple in Asia it annihilated Japan and turned an absolute victor. It didn’t incinerate Germany with a nuclear bomb for it stood smack in the middle of Europe but Asia was fair game. America vanquished Germany along with its allies and settled with them to share the spoils.

In 1980s it fought another kind of war and ‘perestroik-ered’ the Soviet Union. Yet 2014 came and Crimea was nibbled away and yet in 2022 the world stares down the specter of another invasion in Europe, this time by Russia as it fights to remake her place in Europe and in the world. Ukraine just happens to be in the way. There are numerous strategic impulses at play as we witness war in the new century or in ‘the new world’ as Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former prime minister and president and currently the Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, announced to a few visitors after Putin had declared recognition of the rebel-held regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia’s rise is a lesson in statecraft and in leveraging the right tools with proportionate effect to shape events in Russia’s favour.

Here are a few snippets. Other than the industrial-military strength that was re-energised to once again reclaim Russia’s right to world’s second most powerful military force a globalised and interdependent global economy kneaded Russia in an era of unmatched prosperity in human history. Russia today has the eleventh largest economy in the world and is home to more than one fashion brands of the world. An average Russian now is far more prosperous than his Soviet days. A 1.7 trillion dollars economy may be built around oil and gas mostly but export of machinery and agricultural produce make equally impressive contributions. Russia’s economic footprint the world over is now far more entrenched. Twelve pipelines — five of those through Ukraine — provide 40 per cent of Europe’s gas to warm it up in its frigid winters. Russian exports to rest of Europe stand at 46 per cent of its total exports while she imports 40 per cent of its needs from Europe. It has world’s largest natural gas reserves and is the second largest exporter of gas in the world. It sits on the largest shale oil reserves of the world. Germany imports 40 per cent of its gas needs from Russia through its Nord Stream pipelines and imports 34 per cent of its oil from Russia. How do you go to war with a country that is so deeply penetrated into your vitals? You don’t. You just watch as it nibbles on more and more.

It was illuminating to hear the NATO Secretary General explain NATO’s position as Putin parsed the pieces of what was considered Ukraine main. First principle of defence against Putin: ‘NATO will defend with full force any incursions against nations constituting NATO’ — Ukraine isn’t NATO, so no war here. On being asked where would NATO consider checking the Russian advance: “We aren’t yet sure if only those parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the control of the rebels have been incorporated by Russia or has Putin announced the incorporation of the complete provinces which include the rebel-held regions.” Consternation and procrastination are only a convenient recourse, or is it realpolitik in ‘the new world’? Just to reinforce the dominating essence of peace, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky unambiguously stated that Ukrainian forces will not wage war even as Putin morseled parts away.

So what is this great story of a twenty-first century military’s incapacitation about? The USA won the rights to dreaming fantasies after it became the ‘last man standing’ and declared ‘the end of history’. One of its thoughts was for Russia to be a democracy in the mould of the rest of the component states who broke away after Soviet restructuring; a la Poland, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Hungary and the rest. And the route it chose was the German reunification model — narrated by none other than the redoubtable Condoleeza Rice to Fareed Zakaria in her most recent interview. Just as East Germany saw West Germany prosper under its democratic order (read capitalist market economy) it could not but willy-nilly gravitate in West’s lap.

To the US, democracy projected its own power and enticed others to follow suit. In it lay the permanent defang-ing of the Russian might and its expansionary past. That was the plan and Ukraine was to be the model which would entice Russia to follow suit. Russia under Putin in its early days asked for assurances for NATO (read democracy) to not expand its borders beyond its existing boundaries. Rice: “We could not give the assurance that we will not (peddle) democracy as a system of governance”. Hence the change of guards and flavour and USA’s increasing influence in Ukraine. What we see is Russia’s push-back to the violation of what was known to be tacitly agreed. The US will not invoke NATO or bring itself to fight Russia as she makes her moves in Ukraine but will resign it to NATO’s more anorexic cousin, the EU, to pool some defence together. The EU is unlikely to be of much assistance. It does not want to lose its peace and has no military under its belt to call on. Hence the fracas.

Which way does it end is anyone’s guess. But a few conclusions can be drawn: there shall be no war — Ukraine can’t fight it and NATO is not going to risk itself into fracturing the European Humpty Dumpty. Russia by incorporating the two regions of Ukraine has made a statement and regained its position as a near-pole in an era when wars of the yore are unlikely to occur unless the mismatch is complete. If not Russian gas Europe will import gas from the United States which sits on miles and miles of shale — the oil lobby will continue to rule the roost. The nature of war has altered forever; skirmishes and shallow intrusions, even nibbling away at parcels of territory aside the means will always be alternate, invisible, cyber-space driven and proxy managed. Inter-state conventional war will have no place especially if both sides exude equal destructive potential. Economy will just be such a limiter on all such considerations. If a proof was needed, Russia just delivered one.

The world will have its two poles back: geopolitically and militarily — the US and Russia; economically (with military a close second) — the US and China; and civilisationally — Islam and the rest; Islam now far more defined in terms Iran will express. Welcome to the new world.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 25^th, 2022.

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