Rising food imports
Food imports continue to place a heavy drain on the national exchequer, with some estimates suggesting that the price tag this year will exceed $10 billion, compared to about $8 billion last year. Incidentally, reports already suggest that this year’s wheat crop will disappoint. Coming off the bumper crop last year and given international developments, this is doubly concerning. Aside from the fact that wheat imports will increase in quantity, poor harvests and political tensions in Russia and Ukraine — two of Pakistan’s main wheat import sources — mean that prices will rise in international markets.
While a recent meeting of the National Assembly’s Special Committee on Agricultural Products focused on improving yields, it ignored several problems that cannot be addressed through increased efficiency alone. Granted, some of these are beyond its mandate, but we cannot address food insecurity without addressing the elephant in the room — overpopulation. Pakistan has been heavily water-stressed for decades, and the situation is only going to get worse. We are already dependent on foreign sources for many staple food items, including wheat, sugar and cooking oil.
Some panel members called for more investment in agriculture and other reforms. But reforms to improve agriculture can only do so much. Economic planners need to prepare for a time when the country is primarily dependent on imported food because they are sure not doing anything to address population growth. Pakistan’s population grows by about five million people every year. Even if we were to optimise yields, limited water and land availability mean that we will only be delaying the inevitable.
The solution lies in economic restructuring towards industry and services, which are generally more lucrative and require far less land. Unfortunately, whether it is out of cowardice or self-interest, the political class, which is dominated by farm owners, has never shown any real interest in convincing people to have fewer children. Whether this is because such a statement is a political liability among religious voters, or because divesting from agriculture would affect their own wallets, real political will is needed if we are to turn food imports from a threat into something matter-of-fact.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 21st, 2022.
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