PTI government — an assessment
The writer is a retired major general and has an interest in International Relations and Political Sociology. He can be reached at tayyarinam@hotmail.com and tweets @20_Inam
A lot has been written about the PTI government — the third option. From the initial yearning for tabdeeli (change) to ‘more of the same’, our ruling party has been subjected to appraisals…some harsh and some not so off the mark. Being firmly rooted in rural KPK, one interacts with a vast segment of population in all categories on a regular basis; and the following assessment is based upon this extensive interaction. The selected benchmarks are perception, economy, governance, government- establishment relations and tabdeeli if any.
In the perceptual domain, the ruling party has lost its sheen. The reality that has hit political pundits in this country is that Pakistan does not have the political leadership in required numbers, to have three major political parties. So, the public has to contend with the same families and leaders in different parties. And as the argument goes, the stranglehold of the political elite is so strong that the country finds not enough capable leaders to run affairs of the state. It is not that the nation does not have capable human resource in good numbers; the capable resource available cannot afford — materially above everything else — to be elected and/or selected in the current political format. And the capable human resource does not have the stomach to go through the dirty fields of our politics. PTI is no exception so far. Its electables have done what electables do — enhance their financial, personal and political clout at the cost of fair play and Party.
The perceptual hit that the PTI has taken reflects in the fact that in the area under focus (a microcosm of PTI stronghold), the Party is unable to field its candidates in the coming local bodies elections. The youth, like elsewhere, is disillusioned and the constant bickering has divided the Party in competing groups. Most erstwhile founding members feel sidelined having no access to the top leadership at the provincial and/or central levels. Most workers feel that the top leadership — though not tainted — is hostage to vested interest groups, who control access and interaction making it subservient to their wishes and liking. The bubble around the leadership is hard to break, in a sincere reality check. Khan (as IK is referred to) is a distant King in a faraway Islamabad.
Meanwhile local affairs — even welfare endeavours by other well-wishing citizenry are forced through the Party apparatus in an ugly and visible perceptual management exercise. All this to take credit for all and sundry under the sun, in order to befool the gullible public. Government machinery is threatened and coerced to acquiesce.
The local bigwigs — as fashionable in our political culture — remain busy consolidating political capital within the family and friends at the cost of merit and Party. And this in turn forces the central leadership to rely upon the ‘family/clique’ goodwill and blackmail, as the case may be, for the next elections. Stories of corruption, money-making and undue favours here or there, meanwhile, do rounds even in the PTI circles… for NAB to investigate someday. So, rallies and corner meetings once organised are poorly attended by the Party cadre.
Any party that relies excessively on the electables and the nouveau riche will be ultimately doomed, irrespective of the Mr Clean image of its top leadership. PTI is no exception. And if you add to this the perception that the PTI regime has handed over Pakistan on a platter to the predatory international financial institutions like the IMF/WB and that the State Bank will not be the State Bank of Pakistan under the IMF loan conditionalities…the mix is toxic.
As far as the economy goes, the perception (and reality) is worse. Dollar highs, soaring inflation causing edibles out of reach of even the middle class, uncontrolled utility prices…the list is long. Although rising food and POL prices are not the fault of PTI government, who — honestly — is on the receiving end of the global turmoil in disrupted supply chains; the street perception is hard to alter. When flour is Rs50 a kilo, life is hard for the common folks and their apparent target is PTI.
As far as governance is concerned, the PTI-led KPK in the last tenure had reformed revenue collection, education and health sectors to greater benefit of the concerned citizenry, that did not include the graduating youth. The youth bulge in contemporary Pakistan wants employment, hence the job-creation urgency for the government. The Police was de-politicised then. Now the situation is in reverse. ‘Protégé’ revenue collectors are back to their old ways, finding newer ways to ‘create wealth’. In a failed effort to control imports to save foreign exchange; ignoring Pakistan is an import-driven economy, exports have stagnated like the rest of the economy. And tax collection is predatory like never before.
The extension saga and the current routine posting of the DG ISI were two unnecessary brushes that have bruised an otherwise ‘apparently’ harmonious Government-Establishment relationship. One was surprised to hear from the PTI analysts about the inevitability of Imran and PTI…the next time around too. The opinions clearly expressed included a lack of choice with the ‘selectors’ in the next elections; PTI being their Achilles heel. That there is no chance of an in-house tabdeeli, and — they claimed — Khan is deeper than the Establishment can dig. This cannot be an isolated thinking.
On corona front, so far, the NCOC-led containment effort has been successful…truth be told. If Omicron is kinder to Pakistan like its siblings, PTI may escape criticism and get credit, both of which anyways are inconsequential to the rural Pakistan.
So, what this rural microcosm tells us about the future Pakistan, if things stay as they are. One, Pakistan would be faced with the choice between electing a ‘rather corrupt (proven) but decidedly experienced/capable leadership’ or a ‘clean (unproven), somewhat experienced but incapable’ leadership. Two, in our controlled democracy (have no doubts), cobbling up a third option including likeable from all parties is difficult but not impossible. Three, therefore, if today is any guide, we might have to contend with a PPP-led Sindh, JUI-Coalition-led Balochistan and KPK and a divided Punjab.
Betting on the right horse would be very profound. That might be the real tabdeeli in the offing.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 16th, 2021.
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