Omicron: the beast?
The writer is an Adjunct Professor of Epidemiology at the University of Nebraska and has worked for the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He can be reached at jasghar@gmail.com
A new variant of SARS-COV-2 was identified by the end of November in South Africa. Just two weeks have passed since then but country after country started putting travel restrictions and a panic button was pressed. All the gains against the pandemic seemed now lost. Vaccination, prior infection with this virus and even social distancing seems losing its value. Winter surge was already in full swing in Europe and USA and fear is that this fast-spreading virus could start Covid-19 pandemic 2. So, what we know about Omicron is important as if we need to develop or redraw our public health strategies to protect ourselves then we need to separate fact from fiction.
Truth is that we still know little about Omicron. There are many questions which require just time to answer them properly. Will it evade immunity of vaccines or prior infections could only be answered once we have enough data on Omicron infections. Will it be a mild disease or severe form of Covid-19? That too could only be answered once we observe more Omicron-positive patients at least for four to six weeks. Is it more infectious than Delta? We have got that answer already; and yes, it is highly infectious than the Delta variant. According to some studies it is twice as infectious. So even if it is not more lethal than Delta and other earlier variants, by just infecting more people it could increase the number of seriously ill persons and deaths. That is a simple math equation. It has already become a dominant strain in South Africa and will be in the UK in next few days. In the US too, it is being identified in more and more states daily. According to the WHO, Omicron has already been identified in nearly sixty countries and this number is rising too.
Omicron has already reached most countries so travel restrictions are meaningless and actually now will discourage future information sharing. I am disappointed to see countries with top scientific brains and health research institutions, slapping these restrictions on a country which volunteered this information. They knew well that these restrictions could only buy them a few days but still went ahead just for political expediency to show their populations that they are vigilant. New variants will not stop coming until we collectively control this pandemic (globally and not just in your own country). But now countries will not report them, and we will be less prepared next time.
The Omicron has nearly 50 changes or mutations and scientists were worried that these changes will make it a vaccine evading variant. Earlier data from the UK, USA and Israel is confirming this. However initial numbers are very small in these countries so once we have enough numbers to do a proper analysis things may change. But what to do especially in the upcoming holiday season? This is unfortunate because many people were already vaccinated and hoping to see their loved ones after nearly two years.
We could still enjoy the holiday season by understanding that this virus is airborne and taking precautions for an airborne disease. The big health agencies are dragging their feet to admit that this is the main way it is transmitted. Ventilation is now coming on their advice but still not on the top. Actually, it should be number one as it reduces the transmission risk to nearly eighteen times. Add a mask to it and then vaccination and you will be able to survive. But admitting this also means that governments have to change the standards and rules to build public buildings and drastically modify the current ones. That will incur a huge cost but still a fraction of how much we have already spent on this never-ending pandemic. For all of us who were anxiously waiting for our holidays, ensure vaccinations including boosters, keep the windows open even if it is cold outside and wear warm clothes. Have most meals in the open, weather permitting. Think about the time when people did not have central heating and invest in high quality air filters. And if you have symptoms consider yourself a Covid-19 patient and separate yourself until proven otherwise. Happy Holidays!
Published in The Express Tribune, December 14th, 2021.
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