Taliban govt: old guard and the dynamics of change

The formation of the interim setup by Taliban was a surprise for many, both time and team wise. Announced earlier than expected, the portfolios of the new team indicate that the old guard has taken hold; and it is certainly not an all-inclusive, broad-based government as promised. Women, ethnic and religious minorities, moderates and ideologically diverse elements which could have brought some legitimacy and recognition to ‘Taliban 2.0’ have been completely ignored. However, Taliban’s spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid says this interim setup is aimed at carrying out necessary state affairs, appointments are not final, and they will “try to take people from other parts of the country”.

As the Taliban have not mentioned when the permanent inclusive government will be formed, a question arises: how long will this this setup remain? Delays in announcing a new Afghan government will further exacerbate tensions of stakeholders, and give rise to speculations about ideological differences within Taliban leadership and their ability to adjust their ideology in order to follow through on their promises of an inclusive and representative government. The Taliban cannot afford to keep this transitionary setup for long. Forming a permanent and inclusive government is imperative — linked with not only its legitimacy and recognition but also with peace and stability in Afghanistan.

Taliban must also be cognizant of the change that has taken place in Afghanistan in past two decades. They must grasp the existing objective conditions both inside and outside Afghanistan to gain legitimacy and survive.

It is no surprise that Afghans are fearful and nervous about the Taliban’s rule due to traumatic memories from the group’s past regime. As over 100,000 civilians evacuated and thousands headed to Pakistan, what the Taliban must consider now is that those who remain have protested for their rights, and may carry on.

The series of protests in Afghanistan after the August 15^th takeover point to a new generation of Afghans who are unafraid of publicly exercising their rights. According to UNFPA Afghanistan, 63% of Afghans are under 25 and the urban population is 26%. This new generation which was raised in a globally connected world with advances in education, technology and social media may not sit by idly if basic human rights are curbed and there are crackdowns. Similarly, marginalised communities, particularly women and religious minorities, and all those excluded from the political process must be represented.

Ideally, the above recommendations, if translated into Taliban’s future government, could bring optimism for all stakeholders. But perhaps this is an oversimplified formula difficult to implement by Taliban in toto.

Pakistan and the world community are waiting for Taliban’s response on commitments they have made regarding the upholding of human rights and for the inclusive government.

Pakistan’s Ambassador to the US Asad Majeed Khan, in a recent interview to The Washington Diplomat, said: “Pakistan is monitoring the ability of the new Taliban government in Afghanistan to deliver on commitments and promises to uphold human rights that they have made to the international community before extending recognition to it.”

The Taliban must pass the test for adjusting their ideological vision to the real-time political imperatives of inclusiveness and diversity. This will pave the way for expanding the governing power to all segments of the population, contributing to unification and peace in Afghanistan. Internationally, it will bring Afghanistan out of potential isolation which will pay dividends at this time of economic meltdown. As Ambassador Asad said “the international community has to make a choice: between engaging — and that doesn’t necessarily mean recognition — and abandonment”, it seems the international community may give a chance to this viable option of engagement on their own terms.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 18^th, 2021.

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