Vision of China in 2049
The writer is former Dean Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Karachi and can be reached at amoonis@hotmail.com
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step — Chairman Mao Zedong, the architect of Communist revolution in China, October 1949.
On July 1, 2021, while addressing the centenary of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at Tiananmen Square, CCP Secretary General and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke at length about his vision for his country and made it clear that “only socialism with Chinese characteristics can save China from chaos”. He also warned those powers of serious consequences who under the cover of containment of China want to damage and destroy his country.
If the CCP takes the credit of a modern and prosperous China in 100 years since its formation in 1921, in 2049 when China will celebrate 100 years of Communist revolution, visionary leadership of China expects Taiwan to reunify with the mainland, People’s Republic of China (PRC). For some, it may appear to be a wishful thinking that Taiwan will rejoin China and fulfil the vision of Chinese reunification. As Hong Kong and Macau again became part of China around 50 years after the Communist revolution, the vision that Taiwan will peacefully rejoin the mainland by 2049 cannot be termed a fallacy. Before the PRC centenary, it is expected that by 2026, China will surpass the US as the world’s largest economy. What President Xi said on July 1 at Tiananmen Square reflects confidence about Beijing excelling in economic progress, industrialisation and technology.
In 1921, the population of China was 400 million and it was an impoverished country under the occupation of several foreign powers. It took CCP 28 years to bring a revolution in China and establish a Communist system under the leadership of Chairman Mao Zedong. But, CCP’s road to power was not smooth and reflected enormous sacrifices and sufferings like the long march of mid-1930s. Under the leadership of Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai, CCP succeeded in overthrowing the regime of Chiang Kai Shek and laid the foundations of modern China. The Communist China, in its formative phase like the Cultural Revolution and the great leap forward, promoted the policy of self-reliance and tried to eliminate dissent against the CCP and its leadership.
Vision of China in 2049 needs to be analysed by taking into account three major realities, as follows:
First, unlike in 1949 when the bulk of Chinese population was poor and illiterate, the situation in 2021 is totally different. Over the last 72 years, CCP has lifted around 700 million people from poverty and today China is regarded as a success story in terms of GDP, economic growth rate, exports, foreign exchange reserves, and the standard of living. China has a population of 1.4 billion having access to major necessities of life like clean and safe drinking water, better education, health facilities and public transport. The quantum of China’s trade is $4 trillion, its GDP is $17 trillion and it has forex reserves worth $4 trillion. In 1979 when under the visionary leadership of Deng Xiaoping, China embarked on open-door policy, allowing private property and free trade, China’s forex reserves were hardly $2 billion, but the CCP despite compromising on the principles of Communism and Marxism by allowing private property and free trade maintained its control over the mode of governance. The phenomenon of Capitalism-Communism, called ‘Copi-Con’ is now a reality in China. When the CCP envisioned transforming China as the world’s number one economic power, compromises were to be made on ideological principles.
Second, unlike the Russian federation which discredited the founders of Russian revolution, the CCP under President Xi owns Mao Zedong, the founder of modern China. During the CCP’s centenary celebrations the services of Mao and other Communist leaders in laying the foundations of modern China were acknowledged. President Xi also lamented that had Mikhail Gorbachev, the last Soviet leader, not embarked on the policy of reforms under ‘Glasnost’ and ‘Perestroika’ and maintained the hold of Communist party over power, Soviet Union wouldn’t have disintegrated. A special report entitled “The Chinese Communist Party” published in The Economist (London) issue of June 26, 2021 stated: “History weighs heavily on Mr. Xi, who keeps mentioning the Soviet collapse. He is waging campaign against what he calls historical nihilism — that is, any grumbling about communism’s past. One Soviet leader, Nikita Khrushchev, is held up as the archetypal nihilist for denouncing Stalin’s brutality in 1956. That event haunts Mr. Xi. Party literature says it led to the Soviet Union’s demise. Much of Mr. Xi’s energy is focused on making sure the party learns the Soviet lesson. Mao must remain a saint.” And there is no guilt either among CCP leaders about the “massacre” of hundreds of pro-democracy protesters, namely students, at the Tiananmen Square in June 1989.
Third, in order to stick to its vision of 2049, the CCP is required to hold its grip over power. Dissent in Xinxiang, Tibet, Hong Kong and elsewhere in China needs to be crushed with an iron hand. With 92 million members, which form 8% of the adult population of China, the CCP is using smart ways to deal with those elements who want democracy and preservation of human rights in their country.
President Xi sees the multiparty system a threat to stability in China as was witnessed in the former Soviet Union. CCP is viewed by the majority of Chinese as a guarantor of their country’s sovereignty, integrity, stability and peace. By improving the quality of lives of 1.4 billion people of China, the CCP hopes to take their country to 2049 when it will be the world’s number one economy, with Taiwan unifying in its fold.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 11th, 2021.
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