Afghans to decide their own fate

The agreement between the US and the Taliban was titled as the “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan”. Claims for having a comprehensive peace were made, heralding the declaration as a step in the right direction. But Afghanistan is still bleeding and blood is cheaper than water.

Many considered the agreement as a total surrender on behalf of the US or at the most an achievement of strategic objectives by dismantling the network of Al Qaeda. Therefore, staying further in Afghanistan was no longer considered feasible. Having achieved the objectives, the country has been left to its own fate, as had been done earlier. The terms of a one-sided agreement without making the government of Afghanistan as a necessary party manifested the mindset based on realpolitik and not principles and ideals. The major focus was on the safe withdrawal of US troops and the undertaking of not to use Afghan soil against the vital interests of the US and her allies. The release of prisoners involved in heinous offences was also without the willingness of the Afghan government. The terms of the intra-Afghan dialogue remained unclear and were akin to just paying lip service.

All conditions required for the intra-Afghan dialogue have been jeopardised by relentless attacks by the Taliban. They are in no mood to sit on the table for an amicable settlement of the issue of the future political setup. They are bent upon grabbing more territory to show to the world that they are the only power to be reckoned with. Therefore, the world must talk to them. By capturing physical spaces and establishing their own parallel administration, they are trying to demonstrate that the support of the public is with them. Splashing news of soldiers deserting the ANSF and joining their ranks is another tactic, making people believe that the Afghan government is on the retreat and will finally crumble.

Despite evasive commitment to the intra-Afghan negotiation, ostensibly the Taliban have shunned holding a dialogue with the official delegation of the government of Afghanistan on one pretext or the other. They even rejected the good offices of Turkey to act as a bridge between the two sides. Owing to an impasse to find a middle ground, the situation on ground is quite precarious as the conflict is widening, with attacks and counter attacks on each other. As such, the humanitarian crises are developing; and the civilian population has no freedom of choice.

Reports emanating from various sources suggest countless deaths and injuries on a daily basis. These sources also indicate around 87 districts out of 400 are in the control of the Taliban. This time, the tactical move of the Taliban appears to be to take control of the northern areas in order to neutralise the former Northern Alliance, before capturing Kabul.

Sensing the gravity of the situation, President Ashraf Ghani along with Dr Abdullah Abdullah met US President Joe Biden recently. Although Biden’s meeting with the Afghan president may be a demonstration of the continued US commitment to Afghanistan, the partnership between Afghanistan and the US is not ending. Biden categorically stated, “The Afghans are gonna have to decide their future, what they want. And it won’t be for a lack of us being help”. This means that the government of Afghanistan will have to preserve its own sovereignty through the Afghan National Army.

The Afghan government has vowed that it has the capacity and will to fend off the onslaught of the Taliban. It has also organised militias against the insurgents, amidst claims of taking back eight districts from the Taliban. Rallies expressing resolve to defend the Taliban takeover are also an exercise to bolster the morale of the public and security forces.

The matter of fact is that opposite forces have arraigned against each other to fill the power vacuum. In this scramble for power, the Afghan government is now engaged in a war without having air superiority. As such, a new cycle of violence has ensued and will continue till one of them subdues the other.

Events in Afghanistan have a direct impact not only on Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa but on the whole of Pakistan. This brings to fore the Reagan’s doctrine of supporting anti-Communist insurgents wherever they might be. In his 1985 State of the Union address, president Reagan called upon Congress and Americans to stand up to the Soviet Union, which he had previously called the “evil empire”. We must not break faith with those who are risking their lives — on every continent, from Afghanistan to Nicaragua — to defy Soviet Union supported aggression and secure rights which have been ours from “birth”. This was a break from a covert policy of containment towards an overt policy of support to the insurgents, or jihadists, that were organised with US dollars, logistics and weapons. Who could forget the US stingers on the shoulders of those so-called jihadists? Having achieved the objectives, after the withdrawal of the Soviet forces under Glasnost, the US abandoned Afghanistan to its own fate. Again, having achieved the strategic objective, the US is walking away in a similar fashion, asking the Afghans to decide among themselves. This in all likelihood will have social and political repercussion on the region, in particular, Pakistan.

If the negative fallout of the conflict has to be controlled, then peaceful resolution of the conflict is imperative. For this the United Nation’s peacekeeping forces or the deployment of forces like Turkey’s is necessary during the transition. If not, then the country will plunge into civil war.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 30^th, 2021.

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