Making a clear choice of ‘absolutely not’

PM Imran Khan’s statement on not providing any military base to the US has introduced a new situation in Pakistan. All previous Pakistani democratic governments had one common denominator – they all worked under US pressure, made important policy concessions, and refrained from making a clear choice of ‘absolutely not’ in matters relating to the Pakistan-US relations. The new situation puts PM Imran Khan and his government in a tight spot. It is one thing taking a hardline posture against a country like the US and quite another dealing with the consequences of taking such a posture.

The recent bomb blast in Johar Town Lahore, near the residence of Hafiz Saeed, the founder of Lashkar-e-Taiba and alleged mastermind of 2008 Mumbai attacks, is a reminder of how a peaceful Pakistan can be turned into a turbulent Pakistan within minutes by the enemies of the state. Given the current nature of the Pakistan-US relations a majority of people in Pakistan would find all the reasons to point a finger at the US as second only to India as a suspect. But it can be anyone from within the country, another group trying to settle score with Lashkar-e-Taiba, one never knows. What really is the new situation for Pakistan?

If no one has noticed, Pakistan has – since the start of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the late 80s – for the first time disengaged itself from supporting any military action by the US in neighbouring Afghanistan. It has taken Pakistan four decades and many economic, social, cultural and military sacrifices to realise this and in turn to develop this response. Given this late but welcoming awakening Pakistan needs to find answers to two critical questions. One, is this response sustainable? Two, what kind of a relationship can now be sustained between the US and Pakistan and at what cost?

The US has a history of creating influences to try and affect the change in the policy of a given regime and if that is not doable then manipulate events to try and change the regime itself. This, in the language of international relations, is called subversion and is best understood as “the practice of trying to gain an advantage by directly influencing a foreign country’s domestic politics against its wishes”.

Subversion is classified into three levels. We had plenty of level one in which propaganda and counter-narrative building was utilised to brainwash and indoctrinate the minds of our people. Level two relates to covert support in terms of money and material to the interest groups in the targeted country. This, I am also sure, does not escape the attention of our security services, intelligence and the establishment. The third and most crucial level is funding insurgents, sabotaging infrastructure and assassinating high profile targets. Gen Zia’s targeted assassination was a level three act of subversion and one may not go into the details of why Gen Zia got assassinated and why he was no more fitting in the scheme of things and was thus removed from the scene.

The statement from the Pakistani PM comes at a time when Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is visiting Washington. The US President is most likely to utilise the occasion to assure President Ghani and reiterate what the White House spokesperson has already said: “US will remain deeply engaged with the government of Afghanistan to ensure that the country never again becomes a safe haven for terrorist groups who pose a threat to US homeland.”

After the Pakistani PM’s statement it is clear that the US’s deep engagement military component is no more supported by Pakistan and that leaves us to ask this critical question: what will now be Pakistan’s strategy to deal with Afghanistan and does this strategy address Pakistan’s interests?

It surely does. The fencing on the western front is almost complete and that stands out as a physical manifestation of the end of concept of strategic depth. Given the American reach out to India as a defence and strategic partner, our reliance on the US over the last many years had become doubtful and no more reliable to seek strategic military backing against the Indian threat. Therefore to keep our security situation in balance we had to look up to China as well as warming up our relations with Russia.

Moscow and Beijing have already worked with Iran. One has partnered it in the battlefield in Syria while the other has agreed to provide $400 billion as an economic aid to Iran for the next 25 years. So if one regional power is acting as the economic guarantor for the regional stakeholders and the other as the security grantor then there is all the possibility of creation of conditions on ground which can encourage outside participation to rebuild Afghanistan under not a unipolar but multipolar arrangement. Turkey’s agreement to deploy its troops to guard the Kabul airport is reflective of confidence of a country in such an arrangement. Under the growing multipolar system the US must never undermine the Chinese influence which is fast growing through its One Belt One Road initiative. With the US influence on the wane after its withdrawal from Afghanistan, it is the Chinese and the Russian influence that will grow in the region and all relationships including Pakistan’s relationship with outside powers will end up being reshaped under the shadow of this reality. The future inter-state relationships in the region will no more be based on pure historical contexts but cold geopolitical realities.

The one big reality looking us in our face is that post US withdrawal and our denial to support even the smallest of US counterterrorism footprint to support its deep engagement in Afghanistan has finally prepared us to look to the other side and free ourselves from the US dominance. The other side is the emerging era of global multi-polarity in which China and Russia are positioning themselves as its leading regulators and architects.

The ‘absolutely not’ comment of the PM clearly spells out an emerging Pakistan’s great desire that it wants the world to treat it on no other basis but on the basis of sovereign equality.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 27^th, 2021.

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