Cooperating with regional countries

Pakistan’s location is a blessing as it connects South Asia to Central Asia and beyond, opening up multiple opportunities. It also is a challenge being in the midst of a tough security environment. For years, Afghanistan has been a deadly conflict zone, mired in perpetual civil war with global and regional powers influencing to shape the outcome. Its adverse fallout has had serious consequences on Pakistan’s economy, politics, security and culture. The situation is still highly unpredictable and in a state of flux with prospects of civil war intensifying as the American forces withdraw and the Taliban being militarily more powerful vying for full control of the country. Indeed, Pakistan has done what it can to facilitate the peace process, putting pressure on the Taliban leadership to be more accommodative and take the Afghan government and other forces with it to ensure a smoother transition. But this is not happening and the Taliban seem to rely on their military muscle to have their way.

The construction of the barbed wire fence by the army along the Pak-Afghan border in record time was one of the several measures it has taken to prevent a spill over from possible increase in violence and instability once foreign forces leave Afghanistan.

The presence of our troops and surveillance devices on the border should contribute in preventing unauthorised movement. But increase in cases of violence in North and South Waziristan, presence of terrorist cells in major cities and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) resurgence, albeit limited, continue to pose a threat.

The border with Iran and overall relations with it have a different set of challenges that face Pakistan. The Iranian Revolution that ousted the monarchy and established a guardianship of the Islamic Republic in which the president, parliament (Majlis) and judicial system share powers reserved to the national government was a landmark event. It took several years for Pakistan and Iran to reset their relationship and restore mutual confidence. Iran’s relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries remain antagonistic which demands of Pakistan to navigate its relations with great care. Border management and close cooperation with Iran although has improved but there is a need for enhanced cooperation. Unless greater attention is not given to uplift the condition of the Baloch in terms of their education, economic uplift and political empowerment, the simmering discontent will persist. The government and the army have contributed significantly in the uplift of the province and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has been a major vehicle of change. But the sense of deprivation and neglect among some youth groups lingers on and is exploited by inimical forces. This needs to be countered through a comprehensive approach by involving them broadly in different fields of activity especially governance. Political engagement and involvement are as important as schemes for economic uplift. The political parties have to take greater interest in the affairs of the province. Otherwise, the vacuum gets filled up by the security forces and the bureaucracy, as history reminds us. Furthermore, the relatively small representation in the National Assembly and indifferent leadership of the province in parliament and federal government has failed to promote the interest and aspirations of the people of the province.

Another area that needs attention is better coordination with the Iranian government and security forces to control and manage the border effectively. No doubt, the government and armed forces leadership has undertaken several measures to prevent smuggling, drug trafficking and establishing the writ of the state, but challenge remains.

The eastern border with India has been the most volatile and a serious security threat. The recent adherence to a ceasefire on the Line of Control (LoC) and thaw in relations augur well. How to make it more lasting and create an enabling environment for finding a peaceful solution to the Kashmir conflict would be a major step. At the moment, India is going through a catastrophic phase of Covid-19 spread. Pakistan’s response to India’s pain at the government and people’s level has been very positive and genuine.

Relations between Pakistan and China could be the envy of many countries. There is convergence and mutuality of interest on most of the major issues and CPEC has been a catalyst in strengthening economic and strategic bonds. The infrastructural and power generation projects and the upgradation of Gwadar Port have enhanced the economic capacity of Pakistan and enabled trade links to grow stronger and faster.

Despite many positive developments it would be unrealistic to make light of a series of hurdles. The inter-state disputes and rivalries especially the China-US rivalry, the Iran-Israel intense hostility or our relations with India or the situation in Afghanistan have the potential to be highly destabilising at the regional or global level.

Interestingly, what is remarkable and gives hope that the world is witnessing two distinct trends where countries are finding it convenient to go at it alone in certain areas, and also strengthening ties and cooperating to work together where there is greater convergence of interest. The recent example of the latter phenomenon is how Pakistan and major regional countries are cooperating in respect of restoring peace in Afghanistan. Efforts of Pakistan to cooperate closely with China and broadly with Central Asian states is another effort at regional cooperation for the common good.

Pakistan’s challenge is to balance its relations with Saudi Arabia while maintaining a good relationship with Iran. With Iran bordering Balochistan, a stable and peaceful border requires close cooperation between the two countries. But a sharp division between the Muslim countries — with Saudi Arabia leading the Sunni countries and Iran the stronghold of Shia faction — demands that Pakistan conduct foreign policy with great finesse. The challenge grows even more as Pakistan has a significant Shia population estimated to be anywhere between 12 to 15%. The US-Iran hostility greatly accentuated during the former President’s tenure was another factor that placed great strain on diplomacy and required astute handling of relations with Iran. It indeed goes to the credit of Pakistan that it managed the balancing act very well without taking sides although there was greater alignment and proximity toward Saudi Arabia.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 28^th, 2021.

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