Careering towards collapse
The writer is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad. She is a LUMS and Warwick alumnus
On February 13, in etiquette similar to that accorded to the reception of state guests, Lebanon’s first batch of Covid-19 vaccines arrived at Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport. Despite skepticism — which unfortunately has become a norm for the general Lebanese populace — the meagre 28,500 inoculations offered a scrap of hope amidst the rampant prevailing degeneracy. Many drew comfort from the agreement signed between the World Bank and the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, according to which autonomous supervising of Lebanon’s vaccine campaign would be carried out. Despite strict lockdown measures, Lebanon has some of the world’s highest rates of coronavirus infections and deaths.
However lamentably yet predictably, a scandal broke out when high-ranking officials were administered early jabs, despite not qualifying as early recipients. Many who had been given doses purported their entitlement as public servants to receive the vaccine. An enraged World Bank was caught in a quandary since inaction would set a bad precedent and suspending the allocated $34 million funds would further delay an already sluggish vaccine rollout.
It is hard to hyperbolise the plight of Lebanon, as it careers towards collapse. With food prices up fourfold, supermarkets have become miniature warzones. Begging and barter are rife. At every street corner in Beirut there are hooded bureau exchange dealers waiting for definite customers. Delays in fuel payments have resulted in major power outages throughout the country.
The country has been drifting undirected since last August in the backdrop of the cabinet’s resignation after the Beirut blast. Given the present degeneration, caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab has threatened to quit in a bid to pressure politicians to form a new cabinet.
More than half of Lebanon’s population of six million has been pushed into poverty as a result of the 2019 financial crisis which drove up unemployment and hacked consumer purchasing power in its wake. The Lebanese currency has lost almost 90% of its value. On March 2, the pound tumbled to 10,000 to the dollar — its weakest rate ever. Under the constant pretence of restructuring, the central bank is essentially insolvent.
Linked to the country’s economic crisis is the pollution crisis which is growing at an alarming rate. For years authorities have been relying on temporary fixes and stopgap measures to deal with this issue. The memory of Lebanon’s 2015 garbage emergency, which saw millions of trash bags lining the streets, is still vivid in people’s memories. However, the current currency depreciation has rendered the government unable to allocate a budget for waste management which has fenced people into simply burning the refuse openly.
Since the end of the civil war in 1990, Lebanon operates within a sectarian power-sharing system. Though intended to maintain peace between factions, this arrangement has created a revolving door for the same political elites which has resulted in patronage and lack of accountability. As a result, the country has accumulated a staggering $95 billion public debt — one of the highest in the world. Despite this, successive governments, have been borrowing without restraint or strategy on how to pay the money back. At this time, no one is queueing up to help Lebanon because of the common knowledge that all funding inevitably will succumb to corruption.
Lebanon’s well-wishers should know that recovery of any sort cannot be tackled solely through aid agencies since that would impede the state’s capacity to manage development. Recovery needs to be in tandem with confronting political delinquency.
A good starting point is the Covid-19 vaccine rollout. There is a good chance that collaborative coordination in this arena may reverberate across other sectors of the country and send a message of hope.
Till then it’s a race against time.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 17th, 2021.
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