Stage is set for a tough electoral battle between the government and the opposition parties with far-reaching repercussions for both sides, as lawmakers in the national and three provincial assemblies will elect new senators for a six-year term on Wednesday (today).
This year’s election of the half of the members of the upper house of parliament is watershed as winning control of the Senate would enable the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government to legislate easily, but a defeat on the other hand, might invite a no-confidence move against it.
The polling is due on 37 seats of the 104-member house. The National Assembly members will vote for one general seat and one women’s seat from Islamabad. Voting will be held in the respective provincial assemblies for 11 seats of Sindh and 12 each of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
In Punjab, however, there were 11 seats but thanks to the efforts of the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q) leadership all the senators have been elected unopposed. Therefore, there will be no polling in Punjab today. Overall, 48 senators will be elected this year.
The most high-profile contest of the “Senate Elections-2021” will be between former prime minister and joint candidate of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) parties, Yusuf Raza Gilani, and Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh of the PTI – both vying for a general seat from Islamabad.
Amid rising political temperature in the country, the federal capital was rife with all kinds of speculations on Tuesday. Currently, the contest for the Islamabad seat reflects a battle between two alliances – one supporting the government and the other supporting the opposition PDM.
The Shaikh-Gilani contest, dubbed “the winner takes all”, has forced both sides to woo parliamentarians, especially the ones who usually go unnoticed. Apparently, the government has numerical superiority in the National Assembly, but owing to some disgruntled treasury members, Gillani appeared confident that he can win.
On the other hand, Prime Minister Imran Khan and senior members of his cabinet are holding meetings with resentful National Assembly members (MNAs) to win their support back for Dr Hafeez Shaikh.
So much so that Prime Minister Imran has spent two consecutive days in parliament and met dozens of lawmakers from the treasury benches, who otherwise, do not get a chance to sit across the table with the prime minister.
Leading the government’s Senate election campaign from the front, the prime minister has cancelled his other engagements to spend time with the lawmakers to muster their support.
NA composition
From the 342 members of the National Assembly, 341 will be able to cast their vote for the one general seat and one women seat from the federal capital. The winner here will require at least 171 votes. However, the number can go down in accordance with the total number of the votes cast.
The ruling coalition has 181 members – PTI has 157 members, 7 belong to the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P); 5 each to the PML-Q and the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP); 3 to the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) and one each to the Awami Muslim League (AML) and the Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP). Besides 3 independent lawmakers are also with the ruling coalition.
On the other hand, the opposition coalition has 160 members – 83 MNAs are from PML-Nawaz, 55 from the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), 15 from the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), 5 from the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) and one from the Awami National Party (ANP). The opposition coalition also has the support of two independent members.
However, Jamaat-e-Islami (Central) and Sindh chapter on Monday announced it will remain neutral in the Senate elections, following which the opposition coalition’s support had reduced to 159 members.
Among the ruling coalition, the MQM, the PML-Q and the GDA have announced support for PTI candidate, Dr Hafeez Sheikh. Federal Minister Fawad Chaudhry told a press conference on Tuesday that 176 out of 181 coalition lawmakers attended a lunch hosted by the prime minister.
The opposition, however, hopes to win over the disgruntled government members. In addition to the available support from the PDM parties, Gillani will have to get 11 votes from the ruling coalition to win.
Provincial battlegrounds
Besides the Shaikh-Gilani contest, the National Assembly will also vote for another one-to-one contest on the women’s seat between Fauzia Arshad of the ruling PTI and Farzana Kausar of the opposition PML-N.
Since there will be no polling for 11 seats in Punjab assembly, provincial lawmakers in other assemblies will cast their votes to elect the remaining 37 senators from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and Sindh.
Each of the three provincial assemblies will elect 7 members on general seats, two on women seats and two on technocrat seats. Besides, there is one minority seat each in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
Though the ruling coalition partners have pledged support, many have openly expressed the desire that similar arrangement should have been made in other provinces. Surprising as it may seem, the Chaudhrys of Gujrat once again proved themselves as kingmakers by brokering a major deal between the bitter rivals, PTI and the PML-N, by ensuring smooth elections in Punjab.
The election will come two days after the Supreme Court’s ruling in favour of secret ballot. Half of the current members of the Senate will complete their six-year term on March 11, and new members will replace them.
There are 104 members of the Senate, half of whom retire every three years and elections are held for their seats. Following the merger of the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, there will be no polling for the four seats and the total Senate seats will reduce from 104 to 100. Resultantly, elections will only be held for 48 Senate seats this time around.
Post-election scenario
Given the numerical strength of the government and the opposition in the provincial assemblies, and if the results are truly reflective of the current strength of the parties, the PTI is likely to emerge as the largest party in the upper house with 28 seats after the 2021 Senate elections.
However, despite being the largest group, the PTI will still be unable to gain full control of the house and keep relying on its allies and the opposition parties for carrying out simple legislation. Currently, the opposition has a clear numerical majority over the government in Senate.
While the number of government and opposition members is expected to be almost equal, the PPP is likely to become the second largest party with 19 seats, followed by the PML-N with 17 seats and the Balochistan Awami Party with 13 seats.
ECP finalises arrangements
The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) said on Tuesday that it had finalised all arrangements for holding the Senate elections on Wednesday to elect the new senators who replace the senators retiring on March 11.
According to ECP, the polling will be held from 0900 hours to 1700 hours simultaneously at the Parliament House in Islamabad and the provincial assembly buildings in Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
The ECP has directed all the chief secretaries and the authorities concerned to ensure presence of any member in its custody, at their designated polling stations for casting their votes.
The commission has already announced the names of the winners on various vacant seats of Senate from Punjab. They include Azam Nazeer Tarar (PML-N) and Syed Ali Zafar (PTI) on technocrat seats while Zarqa Suharwardy Taimur (PTI) and Saadia Abbasi (PML-N) on women’s seats.
The seven candidates elected unopposed on general seats are Kamil Ali Agha (PML-Q), Saifullah Sarwar Khan Nyazee (PTI), Afnanullah Khan (PML-N), Aon Abbas (PTI), Ejaz Ahmad Chaudhry (PTI), Sajid Mir (PML-N) and Irfanul Haq Siddiqui (PML-N).
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