Experts share their take on 2021
Pakistan has expectedly missed its GDP growth rate target in the outgoing fiscal year. PHOTO: INP
The economy had been under pressure for the past 12 months. While for some sectors 2020 had been a nightmare, for others it was a blessing in disguise.
It had been a year unlike any; while the services sector was battered by the pandemic, new businesses also emerged. Though the agriculture sector suffered due to lockdowns, locust attack and climate change, the construction sector and capital markets managed to finish the year on a positive note.
Now, as we look towards 2021 with a mix of caution and hope, The Express Tribune digs deep to see how the new year will unfold for businesses and economy.
Economy and Covid vaccine
A lot of what will happen in 2021 will be determined by how early Pakistan can get hold of an approved Covid-19 vaccine. Economic recovery will depend on how effective the government’s fiscal and economic policy responses are
SDPI Executive Director Abid Qaiyum Suleri
Support from donor agencies
Pakistan has done well to pull through the tough 2020. We are committed to the country’s economic recovery through stabilisation, resilience, growth and job creation
Asian Development Bank Country Director for Pakistan Xiaohong Yang
Conditions for economic development
Pakistan was already facing the aftermath of IMF programme, which was further fuelled by the unexpected pandemic. However, later on – after the suspension of IMF programme – the economy started coming back on track, and if this continues I assume that we will observe 2-2.5% positive growth in 2021
Economist Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan
Low-cost borrowing by businesses
Year 2021 will be better for businesses and the economy. The prevailing (low) interest rate at 7% and available liquidity in the market will keep supporting businesses and economic activities. Statistics from February onwards will show high growth trends
Arif Habib Corporation Founder Arif Habib
Expedite decision-making process
Developments in 2021 will depend on decision-making. Learning from the experiences of 2020 – the losses incurred in the areas of wheat, sugar and LNG due to untimely decisions – I would recommend that to policymakers
Pakistan’s former ambassador to WTO Manzoor Ahmad
Long road ahead for aviation industry
Post-pandemic full revival of air traffic in Pakistan will take about three years, though domestic traffic in some countries like China has almost recovered
Aviation expert Afsar Malik
Not too optimistic conditions for trade
The world economy will remain stressed for at least the first half; there will consequently be demand compression for our exports; the current account will continue to benefit from formalisation of remittances
Pakistan Business Council CEO Ehsan Malik
Construction sector to boom
Bright future lies ahead for the construction sector in Pakistan as the federal government is focused on reviving the sector. We are looking forward to a good year ahead
Member Task Force on Housing Mohammad Hassan Bakshi
Power sector to continue to bleed
The power sector will continue to remain under stress as all variables are bound to remain as they are. Non-professional management, increase in tariff, revenue-based load-shedding for three provinces other than Punjab, further accumulation of circular debt and consumer discontent will be seen
Former PEPCO MD Tahir Basharat Cheema
Better year for telecom
From all the visible signs it appears that 2021 is going to be a better year for telecommunications in Pakistan. I say this because several outstanding demands, for which Pakistan’s telecom sector had been struggling, seem to be getting recognised at the highest levels
ICT expert Parvez Iftikhar
Impressive growth for tech sector
It seems that stars have aligned and 2021 is expected to be a breakthrough year for Pakistan’s tech sector. With investments in start-ups reaching new peak in the year of pandemic, we are almost certain of touching new heights
Ignite former CEO Shahjahan Chaudhary
New opportunities for SMEs
The micro, small and medium enterprises sector is advised to roll up its sleeves for hard work in 2021 to recover losses incurred during 2020. Year 2021 will offer numerous opportunities
UNISAME President Zulfikar Thaver
Start-ups on upswing
The start-up ecosystem over the past 18 months or so has seen a positive shift. Pakistan has turned the corner and is now on track to see accelerated growth in many segments of the start-up ecosystem
P@SHA President Jehan Ara
Remittance boom to continue
During 2021, remittances are expected to reach $26 billion. Restrictions on physical travel, anti-money laundering efforts by the government and lower demand from exchange companies will push remittances higher
Pak-Kuwait Investment Co Head of Research Samiullah Tariq
Steel sector – domestic and international potential
Despite the recent increase in demand, the steel sector can experience yet another difficult year in its history
Pakistan Association of Large Steel Producers Secretary-General Syed Wajid Bukhari
Bright future awaits EVs
We see a silver lining in 2021 for electric vehicles as a year-long confusion about EV policy and counter policy is finally settled. With all odds, the electric vehicle penetration will be visible in Pakistan
Electric Vehicle Technology Consultant (EVTC) CEO Shaukat Qureshi
Tough year ahead for food sector
Year 2020 was very critical for the food sector as production of major crops like wheat and sugarcane was less than expected. Pakistan needs to address several issues related to the agriculture sector to avoid any food crisis in 2021
Cereal Association of Pakistan Founder and Chairman Muzammil Chappal
Unclear future for restaurants
Outlook depends on how the situation regarding Covid-19 vaccine develops. If the lockdown situation continues, then restaurants will suffer. On the flipside, if the Covid-19 situation improves, we are hopeful that the sector will boom
All Pakistan Restaurants Association Convener Ather Chawla
FDI to be impressive in 2021
Potential sectors which can attract FDI include power, telecom – potential auction of 5G licence in Pakistan, oil and gas exploration on account of auction of new blocks for hydrocarbon discovery and auto as new entrants are expected to enter the market
Arif Habib Limited Head of Research Tahir Abbas
2021 hiring outlook
The job market depends on Covid vaccine and its application; if everything materialises accordingly, job markets will get better in 2021
Pakistan Institute of Labour, Education and Research Executive Director Karamat Ali
Upsurge in IPOs
Given the current pipeline, 2021 is likely to see more IPOs than 2020, which should give a boost to investor sentiment
BMA Capital Executive Director Saad Hashemy
Published in The Express Tribune, January 1st, 2021.
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