Recalibration of mutual interests

The American commitment to the Afghan war during president Obama’s administration rested on domestic politics. When the war was popular back home, he supported it, and when it became unpopular, he pushed for it to end. Thus, the Americans withdrew without any concern for the fate of Afghanistan or the region. According to political scientist Vali Nasr, “America has not won this war on the battlefield, nor has the country ended it at the negotiating table. America is just washing its hands off this war.”

Things began to change in 2012, when it was finally realised that without Pakistan the issue of Afghanistan could not be resolved. Efforts were made to rebuild relations based on ground realities rather than on unrealistic expectations. Since the beginning of the war on terrorism, it was the third time that both the countries had set out to realign their relations. The Americans desired a stable and sovereign Afghanistan while Pakistan expected the US to recognise and respect its geo-strategic interests in the region. In this regard, two trilateral talks on Afghanistan were held in 2012 — one in Tashkent and the other in Islamabad.

The mending process began with the removal of acrimony that Raymond Davis’ capture, Osama bin Laden’s killing, and the Salala attack had rubbed into the relation. In Washington, Pakistan with a new ambassador, Sherry Rehman, worked on outreach and quiet diplomacy for consistent engagement between both the countries. Cameron Munter, the former US ambassador to Pakistan, would later acknowledge that the core of Al Qaeda had been dismantled. Pakistan’s sacrifices in the war against terrorism were also appreciated. Obama restrained the Congress from spreading anti-Pakistan feelings and defeated any attempt to table negative amendments related to Pakistan and by July, the US also tendered an apology for the Salala incident and the Ground Lines of Communications were finally opened.

A Pakistan Private Partnership Initiative to support entrepreneurship in Pakistan was launched at the first-ever US-sponsored Investment Opportunities Conference in London. It gave a unique opportunity to Pakistani and US companies to explore joint ventures for new investment in Pakistan. A US-Pakistan Women’s Council was also established to promote economic empowerment among Pakistani women. Strategic dialogue groups resumed their working.

President Obama freed up $1.5 billion in aid to Pakistan that had been put on hold and offered assistance on energy and public work projects to help build Pakistan’s flagging economy.

Pakistan’s newly elected prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, during his first state visit to the US in 2013, committed to the Obama administration to negotiate with the Afghan Taliban but demanded the discontinuation of drone strikes, which was one of the leading stumbling blocks in the dialogue process that the government had been planning to undertake with the insurgents.

Drone strikes in Pakistan began in 2004. Until 2007, drones were used sparingly, but in December 2009, the frequency of strikes was increased. The New American Foundation database showed 51 attacks in 2009. These were eight times more attacks than those conducted during the Bush administration. In 2009, the main venue of drone strikes was South Waziristan. In 2010, about 90% of the total 86 strikes were carried out in North Waziristan. This shift in location came after the Taliban and Al Qaeda leaders fled from South to North Waziristan.

Drones had been successful in killing some of the leading insurgents but a large number of Pakistanis considered them as an infringement on the country’s sovereignty. According to an Amnesty International report, “‘Will I be Next?’ US Drone Strikes in Pakistan,” the local population lived under constant fear of either being killed by drones or by Pakistan’s armed forces. A local resident, Qadir, reported to Amnesty: “The tragedy is that drone aircraft deployed by the USA over Pakistan now instil the same kind of fear in the people of the tribal areas that was once associated only with Al Qaeda and the Taliban.”

Although Pakistan had been given a choice to work around its national interest within the region, the element of distrust refused to leave and returned with the arrival of President Trump in the White House. He kicked the settled dust and blurred the relations once again. But despite all the rumpus and financial restrains Trump had to re-drive the original route of Pakistan’s assistance to find an exit from Afghanistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 31^st, 2020.

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