Lahore rally and its aftermath

On Sunday, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) held its much-awaited political rally in Lahore. The event was well attended, which should hardly be a surprise, considering that Lahore is the political bastion for PML-N. But the attendance definitely did not stand up to the expectations of those who wished for a landmark historic political event. In terms of messaging, it was also a bit of disappointment for those who were expecting a big bang.

Most of the speeches at the rally centred on Prime Minister Imran Khan. Inflation and government performance remained the primary theme in the speeches, with the 2018 elections’ credibility and suspension of RTS also coming up quite a few times. Mian Nawaz Sharif was quite critical of the role of establishment, but he shied away from taking any names. Others conspicuously stayed away from aggressive posturing against the establishment. Most importantly, there was no new ammunition brought by PDM against the government, Imran Khan or the establishment.

The rally was expected to provide the future course of action for the PDM, but it seems that the underlying differences amongst the PDM leaders kept them from giving a clear way forward. The only common ground seemed to be the long march, which could happen as late as February.

Resignations also did not figure uniformly in all speeches, giving credence to the impression that PPP is not in favour of resignations and even PML-N is rethinking its options. PPP and PML-N’s lukewarm response should hardly be a surprise. En masse resignations by the PDM may create a political crisis but not a constitutional one. Section 130 of the Elections Act, 2017 clearly states that vacancies in the Electoral College cannot invalidate Senate elections and various constitutional experts have validated this position. The only exception may be Sindh, where the PPP government can dissolve the provincial assembly, which in turn can lead to delay in elections of senators from Sindh.

The resignation option therefore seems like a lose-lose proposition. The PML-N would lose out on the Senate seats that it would otherwise get, putting it at a disadvantage for the next six years, whereas PPP would lose out on its government in Sindh for no apparent gain.

The long march therefore seems to be the only option for PDM but unless it turns into a sit-in, it will hardly create any pressure on the government. And learning from recent history and the 2014 chapter, it is quite clear that even the most resilient sit-ins can have minimal impact on an elected government, if it manages the on-ground situation well and does not worsen the crisis through mishandling.

But some opposition leaders are also expecting ‘behind the scenes’ developments in January, before the long march, which can rattle the government. It is not clear what these developments could be, but one could speculate that the opposition is either counting on a wedge within the ranks of establishment, creating pressure on it to withhold its support for the government or it is banking upon some pressure from international quarters. The opposition has already used its ammunition by naming and highlighting specific individuals and harping on the individuals-versus-institution narrative, which has failed to create enough pressure on the establishment. This is unlikely to change without the PDM playing any new cards. Regarding the latter option, the PM last week did hint at some possible international support for the opposition. But it seems highly unlikely that any such support can push the government to resign.

For now, it seems that the opposition would stage a reasonably well-organised long march towards Islamabad sometime in February, but that’s not likely to disrupt the upcoming Senate elections or jeopardise the ruling party and its coalition partners’ chances to secure a majority in the upper house.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 15^th, 2020.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.