Virus positivity rate on the rise in Karachi, Hyd
A man walks in a market, unbothered by his mask flying to the side. Health officials have ascribed the rise in Covid-19 cases to citizens’ refusal to follow SOPs. PHOTO: REUTERS
The Covid-19 detection rate - the number of cases reported as compared to samples tested - in Karachi and Hyderabad is rapidly rising, leading to alarm among health officials.
Health department data provided on Tuesday showed the five-day long positivity rate is highest in Hyderabad at 18.4 per cent, followed closely by Karachi at 16.02 per cent. Both these cities have some of the highest positivity ratios in the country, while the rest of the province’s districts stand at 4.64 per cent.
And the ratio only went up on Wednesday, when Sindh reported as many as 1,983 fresh coronavirus cases - the highest so far in the second wave - along with six more deaths. As a result, the death toll hit 2,968, while the provincial tally of positive cases stands at 177,652.
According to Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah, 14,078 samples were tested in Sindh overnight, yielding an overall positivity rate of 14 per cent.
Based on the health department’s data, an average detection rate of 12.64 per cent has been recorded in Sindh since November 26. The data identifies an upward trend in this, indicating a rapid increase in the number of positive cases.
By comparison, when the pandemic eased in the country a couple of months ago, the detection rate was hovering under three per cent.
‘SOPs violations’
Health officials say this rise is down to citizens’ refusal to follow the coronavirus-related SOPs. “Even those who have tested positive are going out,” disclosed a senior official at the health department, speaking to The Express Tribune.
“Yes, the positivity rate is going up,” confirmed health department spokesperson Meeran Yousuf. “It will go up further in the coming days,” she predicted.
Despite restrictions and repeated directives, citizens can be found in crowded areas in both cities, flouting social distancing measures and ignoring masks.
“The public doesn’t seem serious about precautionary measures,” commented Sindh health services director-general Dr Irshad Memon, raising similar concerns.
Irked with the public’s nonchalance, health officials noted that even people with apparent symptoms have been avoiding quarantine.
“There is no social distancing anywhere,” said another senior official. “People with positive reports are hugging people and wandering everywhere. This will not help us stop transmission. We are all at risk.”
Public mistrust
On the other hand, citizens appear to find little credibility in the government’s claims.
A buyer in busy Khajoor Bazaar claimed the government itself was not serious. “Then why should the people take precautionary measures?” asked Muhammad Salam, saying he only wore a mask when entering a bank or office where it was mandatory. “The numbers only increase when the government wants to scare people.”
Pointing to the crowded market, Salam opined, “The virus is only hitting the rich, not the poor.”
A commuter, Ahmed Qureshi, noted that most areas of Karachi were not restricted. “The virus is limited to a certain areas. I have not understood why it doesn’t hit everyone where the people are not wearing masks and are avoiding social distancing.”
Other buyers and sellers at the market were also sceptical, given that all reports were generated by government officials. “The government actually manipulates such reports for its own benefits. God knows if they ever speak the truth,” said Akbar Baloch.
Their comments pointed to a major trust deficit between the public and government officials. While the government has focused on raising awareness about the pandemic and has also attempted to enforce punitive action against violators, the presence of government officials at public gatherings has not gone unnoticed by the citizenry.
Collective efforts
“People must understand the value of their own health,” pleaded Dr Memon, urging people to wear masks, wash hands and maintain social distancing. “That’s the only way we can contain the virus.”
According to him, Sindh is the only province sharing daily situation reports. “We do not hide anything like the positivity rate,” he said, adding that the detection ratio in rural areas is less than 3 per cent.
According to the CM, there are currently 20,841 known active cases in Sindh, with 712 patients in critical condition and at least 75 on ventilators.
Based on the health department’s data, there are 1,075 ventilators in the province, with 404 allocated for coronavirus patients. Given Wednesday’s figures, around 18 per cent of the reserved ventilators are currently occupied, but the rapid rate at which the infection is spreading, however, suggests this may rise.
Meanwhile, there are a total of 28 laboratories in the province, 22 of which are in the provincial capital. Their testing capacity is roughly at 88 per cent, testing 14,940 samples per day.
Out of the 1,983 new cases reported on Wednesday, 1,702 cases were detected in Karachi and 40 positive cases emerged in Hyderabad.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 3rd, 2020.