Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal
The war in the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan is over — for now. The six-week conflict took more than 5,000 lives, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Armenia put its military death toll at over 1,300, with estimates of about 150 civilians killed and more than 500 injured on either side. These ‘official’ numbers from Armenia are believed to be understated. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has not given any official military death toll, so Putin’s estimation is the closest measure of the war’s human toll.
Still, given what we have seen in nearby Syria, it is a miracle that the dispute was resolved relatively quickly. This is partly because, unlike Syria, this war was literally at a superpower’s door. It also helped that Russia is on good terms with both warring parties. Indeed, the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute is partly rooted in the dissolution of the Soviet Union, since Armenia and Azerbaijan were both part of the USSR. When the Soviet Union fell, Nagorno-Karabakh was part of Azerbaijan but with a predominantly Armenian population. Separatism led to a bloody civil war. Although still officially part of Azerbaijan, the region is now controlled by a rebel government that is only recognised by Armenia.
The recent war began after Armenian troops allegedly initiated a border skirmish in the summer, and neither side was willing to de-escalate. It only ended because Turkey and Russia were able to convince Azerbaijan and Armenia to step back. The peace deal is a win for Azerbaijan. Although Baku did not get control of Nagorno-Karabakh itself, several surrounding areas have been transferred back from Armenian control, and security guarantees are being provided by Russia. Armenia, meanwhile, gained almost nothing, with the only concession being access to a mountain pass connecting it to Nagorno-Karabakh. This is ironic, given the expansionist rhetoric of the Armenian PM and his attempts to sell the deal to his people as a win rather than capitulation. The sight of members of his government being thrashed in the streets suggests his citizens agree.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 15th, 2020.
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