The impact of US elections

The majority of the world must have taken a huge sigh of relief on Joe Biden’s victory. While the President-elect is not expected to bring about a transformational change in the United States or to have a radical impact on the world, sanity, decency and logic in national and global affairs would prevail. The absence of these during the last four years of President Donald Trump had created a global chaos in the value system of nations and it was having a ripple effect in several fields.

Many national leaders including those of South Asia had started emulating his behaviour as though this was the norm. The most damaging aspect of it was that national politics was getting more polarised and confrontational, destroying the very essence of democratic ethos.

Globalisation instead of expanding and finding greater acceptance among nations was in retreat. With all its shortcomings globalisation has been a blessing for the world at large and developing nations in particular. It was being deliberately undermined by US policies.

President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the World Health Organization (WHO), to withhold funding of global and regional organisations and show contempt toward them was bound to create anarchy. It is expected that Biden would restore the dignity and effectiveness of these world bodies and resume funding. And as reported in The New York Times, one of the highest priorities for Biden after assuming the office of president will be to inform the United Nations that the country will rejoin the effort to combat climate change and be a part of the Paris climate accord.

The US policy on Afghanistan is unlikely to change and it is expected that the Democratic administration would continue to push both sides to find common ground. But if it fails it would still exit while keeping a small military and intelligence force that would keep an eye on Al Qaeda and other terrorist organisations. The pressure on Pakistan to press Haqqanis and other senior Taliban leaders to be more flexible would continue. Although knowing fully well that Pakistani leadership is fully committed in its own interest to contribute towards peace in Afghanistan.

As regards Iran, the new administration would probably revive the nuclear agreement and ease the unfair sanctions regime, with a few caveats. Iran, as expected has taken a huge sigh of relief at Trump’s departure. Imam Khamenei’s recent guarded remarks echo the present mood in Tehran.

It is not surprising if Beijing too would have found some relief on the election of Biden. The containment of China would nonetheless continue as part of the incoming administration’s strategic goals but is expected to be operationalised with a greater level of flexibility and finesse.

South Asia would remain a theatre of major power rivalry in the Sino-US Cold war. Pakistan while maintaining close relations with China would still endeavour to have a functional and cooperative relationship with Washington. Despite frequent hiccups in relations, the US today is Pakistan’s biggest trading partner. Furthermore, Pakistan’s heavy dependence on IMF and World Bank especially at this period when Pakistan’s external account deficit is huge and its economy is under severe pressure requires Washington’s support.

America is also the most prized destination for higher studies in science, engineering and medical fields for Pakistani students.

Despite frequent embargoes the US is still a major source of supply of military equipment and technology for the three services.

One of the most challenging tasks of President-elect would be to galvanise the American people to take effective measures against Covid-19 through stricter self and community discipline. In addition, to step up efforts in the US to develop a vaccine.

President Trump’s contempt for accepted norms was glaringly apparent in his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic although the number of cases were multiplying exponentially. Even after President Trump became a victim of his casual attitude and caught the virus, he was ignoring the requirement of wearing a mask and conveying a sense of false bravado.

President Trump was however smart enough to have a very large following by adopting economic policies that gave promising short-term gains — a typical businessman’s approach toward national issues. On the political front he was pursuing the agenda of pleasing the white racist lobby.

President Trump’s contempt for Muslims was clearly evident when he singled out six of the seven Muslim-majority countries that he decided to ban entry in the US. Fortunately, the presidential order was overturned by the Court.

It is expected the new administration will introduce more humane and just policies toward all races and communities.

The election of Kamala Harris was in itself a ground breaking event as it crossed two major barriers. Ironically, the election of a woman and that too a non-white to the office of vice-president was indeed a revolutionary change for the US that was lagging behind Europe and Asia in this respect. I would, however add, that in South Asia hereditary politics has been a major factor in promoting women in high positions in politics. But as politics gets more merit based and gender-blind, opportunities for women will increase.

There is an apprehension expressed in some quarters that Kamala Harris with her Indian background would be unduly favouring India. I would not subscribe to this assumption. Her past record, principled position on national and global issues and recent policy statements on Kashmir refute this belief. Of course, her attachment to India at the personal and family level would be there and is understandable.

Another fallout of recent American politics was that spewing hatred and intolerance found ready acceptance and became the norm in countries like Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka to name a few. The re-election of Trump would have emboldened regional leaders to suppress the opposition parties and move toward a one-party system. Will the leaders of these countries wait until the next national elections or are prudent enough to see the winds of change and modify their dictatorial impulses and pursue agendas that strengthens and not further weakens democratic institutions?

Published in The Express Tribune, November 11^th, 2020.

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