If Donald Trump loses

In view of trends and opinion polls in the American presidential election campaign, only a miracle can save Donald Trump from a humiliating defeat. Yet, Trump is still confident of securing a landslide victory against his Democratic Party rival Joseph Biden and has warned the American people that their country will be inundated with immigrants if he loses elections and there will be a bloodbath in case of rigging.

The second and the last presidential debate held on October 22, between Trump and Biden, which took place in Nashville, Tennessee, has drawn a line about the outcome of November 3 polls. Whether it was the response and strategy about the Covid-19 pandemic, economy, race relations, leadership, climate change or the foreign policy, the viewers were able to figure out a superficial and insecure person who happens to be a sitting US president and the candidate for president from the Democratic Party who reflected not only his confidence, seriousness and prudence to pull his country out from the vicious cycle of complicated issues but also assured his countrymen of a better future. Yet, the body language of Trump’s election rallies and speeches clearly depicts his mindset which has absolutely no space for tolerating dissent or accepting an impending defeat.

Trump’s combination of confidence and insecurity is so obvious that he has indicated leaving his country if Biden wins the elections as he cannot bear his rival to be in the White House as president. The question is not how Trump would react after losing to Biden but how his supporters, who are tied to the ideology called ‘Trumpism’, will respond after his defeat. Over a period of four years, Trump was able to unite his supporters under his ideology which preached intolerance and hatred against Muslims, immigrants and African Americans. During his election campaign, Trump repeatedly warned his people that in case of Biden’s victory, all his efforts to restore ‘white glory’ in America will go down the drain and their country will never be saved from the surge of non-white population thus threatening the centuries-old white culture and civilisation of the US. Already, the demographic transformation of America is a major challenge because the white population has shrunk to 65% today from 90% in 1965 when immigration laws were changed allowing migration from non-white countries.

It was the fear of black and coloured domination of America which brought Trump into power because of his clear stance against migration, particularly from Muslim countries. Within three months after coming to power, he imposed a travel ban on seven Muslim countries and announced the building of a wall along the Mexican-American border. Some of his harsh steps against immigration were rolled back because of court orders but he remained firm and determined to protect the white American culture and civilisation. In this scenario, the defeat of Trump and the Republican Party will not be acceptable to white supremacists and hardcore racist white groups who got a lot of space during the Trump administration. Opinion polls depicted a tilt of white American males in favour of Trump, particularly those who belief he represents their mindset and protects their interests.

One can figure out three possible scenarios if Trump loses the presidential elections, as follows:

First, so far Trump has not given his affirmation that he will accept the election results if he loses to Biden. Since long, he has been trying to make election results controversial by targeting the electoral process, particularly early voting and postal balloting. For him, such measures under the cover of the Covid-19 pandemic will enhance the chances of rigging — a concern that has been outright rejected by his opponents. Meanwhile, Biden assured in the first presidential debate that he would accept the results as he wanted a smooth sailing in the election process. Fears of a ‘bloodbath’ and ‘anarchy’ if the US plunges into post-election protests is a worst-case scenario depicted by alarmists who predict deep-rooted polarisation in American society if Trump and his white supremacists refuse to accept the election results. Already, there are reports that arms from weapon stores in America are empty because these have been allegedly purchased by ultra-right Trump supporters. Michigan is perceived to be the hub of white supremacists and the failed attempt to abduct the state’s Governor reflected a huge threat which prevails from those who want to take law into their own hands. A professor at the American University, Cynthia Miller-Idriss writes in the October 20 issue of The Economist, that, “everyone I know is worried about the potential for spontaneous violence” because, “sales of firearms and munitions this year have broken records — by one estimate 16.7 million firearms had been bought by September, already more than in any (full) year on record sales. This alone could stir fury in hunting-mad rural Michigan. All told, five million Americans are thought to have bought a gun for the first time this year.”

Second, it will be the utmost effort of the Republican Party, which represents white-dominated right-wing segment of American society, to deny the Democratic Party from gaining a majority in the Senate. Without this majority, Biden as president will be weak because it is the upper house which matters in the realm of foreign policy. The hardline of policy undertaken against Iran and China during Trump’s tenure cannot be softened without the Senate’s support. Ultra-conservative and white supremacists are aware of the fact that it is their last chance to save their country from black and colorued domination as it is projected that by 2050, the white population will lose its majority because of the higher birth rate of non-white immigrants particularly, Muslims.

Third, in case Trump loses, there will be a spontaneous reaction of relief and joy not only in America but also in many parts of the world. He is perceived as the most unpopular and parochial president with a marginal sense of understanding for the lethal implications of climate change; the massacre of Palestinians by the Israeli occupation forces in Gaza and the plight of Kashmiri Muslims at the hands of Indian forces. Trump’s anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric highly damaged America’s image and reputation at the international level. In that case, there will be a positive reaction and response particularly in Third World countries if Trump loses elections.

If Biden is elected president with a clear and huge majority of electoral votes, it will be an end of ‘Trumpism’ at least in the foreseeable future because the right-wing white supremacist groups will be marginalised. But a narrow victory for Biden and failure to control the Senate will provide enough space to Trump’s followers to have a nuisance value in post-American election period.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 30^th, 2020.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.