Breaking the impasse

The recent discussion between Indian columnist and commentator Karan Thapar and Pakistan’s security adviser Moeed Yusuf on The Wire, the former’s website, turned out to be each side claiming victory. Both claimed that they did a great job defending their country’s respective policies and perspective. In fact, their assumption is correct, as there was hardly any deviation in the entire discourse from the official position of the two countries. Both were articulating their government’s positions. Karan, although an independent journalist, was very faithfully representing the BJP hardline throughout the discourse. Moreover, Delhi had the advantage to disown any part of the conversation in case it did not find it useful.

The hard line taken by both sides was not surprising for the greater rigidity the interlocutors displayed in their positions the more patriotic their fellow countrymen would perceive it. Moeed laid bare India’s blatant violation of UN resolutions by the annexation of Kashmir in the Indian Union. Whereas, Karan was harping on the role of non-state actors and the support they enjoy of the military establishment.

What could be considered as a positive outcome of the discussion that despite the wide variation the two countries hold on issues, Moeed and Karan were prepared to participate in a talk show. Moreover, Moeed’s very categorical message that Islamabad is interested in engaging with Delhi and prepared to discuss Kashmir and terrorism has left the onus on Delhi to respond.

It was certainly not a dialogue of the deaf. Being the first encounter it was more of a feeler and an attempt to break the logjam. No side could afford to look weak or yield on their government’s stated positions. After all open messaging in an environment when governments for the last two years had frozen relations is a hopeful sign.

For the last several months, India-Pakistan relations have been taking a dangerous turn. India has stepped up firing on the Line of Control (LoC) and casualties continue to mount. It is also using Afghan territory for sabotaging from the Western front. There are also an increase in terrorist incidents in Pakistan and the likelihood of India being involved is very much there.

Moeed mentioned that there are indications that the BJP leadership has expressed willingness to engage with Pakistan. Understandably, he was hesitant to clarify what was the source of this information.

Considering the BJP government is under considerable pressure it is not surprising that they would be desirous of opening some form of communication links with Islamabad. India’s economy — which until two years ago was flourishing, setting an example for the developing countries — is now undergoing a serious recession. As a consequence there is political unrest in several states. The pandemic has been mishandled and has seriously affected the economy.

PM Modi’s policy of pursuing the Hindu nationalist agenda has pushed the Muslims and other minorities to the edge and antagonised large segments of Indian society. It is unfortunate that apart from a few human rights organisations, think-tanks and foreign press; major powers remain silent spectators to this sad reality.

It is unlikely that Islamabad would be willing to engage until New Delhi agrees to discuss Kashmir and eases its draconian measures on its hapless citizens. Moreover, there should be no illusion that India’s desire to engage with Pakistan is to reduce the pressure it is facing in Kashmir on the political and diplomatic front. It would be a cosmetic move on the part of Delhi to create an impression that it is serious in resolving the Kashmir crisis. Islamabad obviously will not engage unless Delhi is earnest in its talks, otherwise it will be a major setback to the Kashmir struggle.

The Indian’s too would be closely watching Pakistan’s unfolding political developments and probably maintain the status quo in relations until the situation crystallises.

Although most of Pakistan’s political parties are supportive of having good relations with India they would expect reciprocity and expect PM Modi to reassess his highly belligerent policy as it is mutually damaging. The oft-repeated point highlighted by Indian leaders that in Pakistan it is the military that is the overriding factor in relations with India and the views of political parties is inconsequential. This assumption is partly valid. True, the military’s viewpoint carries a lot of weight as security plays a dominant role in relations with India but the PM and the cabinet are supposed to be the final authority.

The decision on major foreign policy issues is generally made through consensus. Moreover, the military leadership supports engagement with India and a peaceful resolution of Kashmir and other bilateral matters. The Indian leadership has deliberately played this aspect down by treating it as a tactical ploy, which is unfortunate.

The outcome of the US elections is unlikely to make any significant difference in its policy toward India and Pakistan apart from nuances. Democratic nominee Joe Biden would probably raise human rights issues in Kashmir with India. Similarly he could be critical of Pakistan’s treatment of minorities. Both the Democrats and Republican Party candidates support India’s efforts to strengthen its military and economic capabilities to act as a counterweight to China at the regional level. This obviously affects Pakistan more as India uses it military capabilities to build pressure on it. Washington’s interest lies in India focusing on China and encouraging the South Asian neighbours to seek resolution of their mutual problems.

It is also in the larger interest of the region that major powers support efforts that India and Pakistan engage in meaningful dialogue and create an environment where progress is possible. The foremost priority should be the easing of draconian measures in the Indian part of Kashmir and the de-escalation along the LoC. The High Commissioners that were withdrawn first by India followed by Pakistan should return. It should be followed up by regular interaction at the diplomatic and political level and gradual opening up of travel and people-to-people exchanges as the threat of coronavirus subsides. These are achievable targets provided there is a will.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 21^st, 2020.

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