US presidential election and its impact on the region
Not that the United States’ governments were generally considered anchored in principles or torchbearers of morality, but in many ways its Constitution, foundational principles and democratic governance did attract emerging and even mature democracies as a model to look up to.
This admiration is now a thing of the past as America’s image has been torn to shreds by President Trump’s frequent impetuous utterances, erratic behaviour and brazen flouting of democratic norms. The ugly scenes witnessed during the recent Presidential debate were the unpleasant manifestation of it.
Not surprising that the world looks eagerly at the outcome of the presidential elections in November from their own lens. Will the situation change for the better by electing Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, and be a victory of the voices of sanity? And bury the legacy of Trump and be a strong setback to the white supremacist who have been his most ardent supporters?
There are countries, especially those that are ruled by autocrats and despots in the garb of democrats who would yearn that President Trump gets another term. This includes India, whose Prime Minister openly expressed his support for Trump — something most unusual and against accepted protocol.
Unfortunately, Trump has turned America into a country that has now no set values. This is diametrically opposite to what it once stood for and was valued for the world over. His remarks during the presidential debate that implied he would not accept any results that were not in his favour and would challenge them in the courts, Congress and even not hesitate to use street power shows to what extent he is desperate to cling to power and his respect for institutions.
President Trump’s recent illness has thrown another wild card in the presidential election. Apart from how he recovers from it is that it will have its own consequences. For the world is watching how he faces the pandemic at the personal level. For while facing a personal health challenge a person’s inner self is revealed like an open book. No wonder that it has become the hottest topic of US and international media with elections only weeks away.
A more pertinent question for us in Pakistan is: does it really matter who is elected the US president? Do we not have a history of US-Pakistan relations that remained under severe strain during the Republican and Democratic regimes and only blossomed when Washington needed our support or services? As was the period in the early 50s as a critical ally of the US and member of its security alliances, or during the Afghan jihad and later after the events of 9/11.
Will there be any difference in how the Biden administration looks at CPEC to Trump’s? Or would the Pakistan-India hostility be perceived with a different lens? There could be marginal differences in nuance and issues where Pakistan’s support is needed. The US would remain engaged with Pakistan in ensuring that it continues to prod the Taliban leadership toward having a more flexible approach during peace negotiations.
Pakistan’s present political upheaval would be perceived by the incoming US administration with considerable disdain. In Pakistan, basic democratic values have been set aside and a major political storm is brewing with the opposition putting up a united front against the government. It is not sure which direction it would take. An environment of mutual abuse has become a common feature with millions of Pakistani’s as sad spectators. In this situation, to expect support from any US administration would be wishful thinking.
There could be differences in the approach between President Trump and Biden in dealing with Iran’s nuclear policy. President Trump having abandoned the nuclear agreement, has been extremely hostile towards Iran.
A Democratic administration would probably revive the 2015 long-term deal on its nuclear programme with the P5+1 — the US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany, with a few caveats. Under the accord, which is known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities that had a potential of being used for military purposes. Although, Iran had all along insisted that its entire programme was entirely peaceful.
The reduction of US-Iran hostility and easing of embargoes on Iran would be in the interest of Pakistan and the region. It would open up prospects of enhanced formal trade and interaction between the two countries. In the longer term, it could have a salutary impact on Iran-Arab relations as the threat of military buildup would somewhat ease.
The Trump administration has not been too sensitive about human rights issues. Knowing that it would not invite international criticism, it is not surprising that the authoritarian regimes in Eastern Europe, Asia, Latin America and elsewhere have no qualms in suppressing dissent.
Another foreign policy issue that has surfaced during the current debate is that President Trump and his administration generally downplayed Russian involvement in the last US elections. Furthermore, it remained under severe criticism for not taking a tough stand on Russian human rights issues.
Disarmament issues have not surfaced in the current presidential debate. Maybe these would have been brought up in subsequent debates but that possibility is now no more. The ongoing effort to renegotiate and replace the New START nuclear arms treaty that is set to expire in February 2021, is also in doubt. The US apparently has dropped its insistence that China is included in the treaty but its own commitment to move forward is doubtful. Hopefully, the Biden administration would take limiting nuclear arms seriously. This has implications for South Asia as well. It emboldens India to pursue its nuclear ambitions more aggressively with the cover that it is only countering the Chinese threat. But in reality the greater impact would be on Pakistan and this apprehension is being highlighted by it on international forums but it is doubtful if the West would be concerned as they support India as a counterweight to China at the regional level.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 7th, 2020.
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