The chameleon of war is slowly changing its colour in Afghanistan. Though it is an encouraging indication, the war per se is deceptive and full of surprises. The partners in peace are getting together, albeit with caution and circumspection, to weigh options for a peaceful settlement of the conflict stretching over nearly two decades. The main actors of the conflict, the US and the Taliban, started a negotiating process last year which finally culminated into an agreement between the two in February 2020. A lot of influence and control has been used externally to preserve the fragile peace despite multifarious physical and psychological obstacles which will continue to impede any positive development in Afghanistan in the future.
An important visit to Pakistan of the Afghan Council for National Reconciliation head, Abdullah Abdullah, is expected to take place in the coming days, which, if goes as planned, may further strengthen the prospect of peace in Afghanistan. However, the spoilers of peace might exploit the situation in three different ways. First, a major terror incident can happen before or during the visit thus highlighting practical susceptibilities to peaceful overtures. Such an incident may involve assassination of a political figure or a military commander thus causing fissures and misunderstandings among the parties. Recently, a motley of extremists has vowed to conduct attacks against law enforcement agencies and work together to carry out impressive assaults on Pakistani soil. We may see an uptick in terrorist attacks in parts of Balochistan and newly merged districts (NMDs) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Second, the hostile intelligence agencies in the region may target the peace process through highlighting fault-lines in the county. These critical points are first expressed on streets through demonstrations, emphasised on account of videos or voice messages and then ignited by incidents on ground. The Shia-Sunni split is present in both countries and can be conveniently exploited to cause chaos and dissension in the region. We have already seen sectarian incidents take place in the country and they may continue till temperatures between both sects rise to a level where law and order is compromised. Moreover, such schisms may also be circulated through social media and Internet to expand its base.
Third, the presence of the Islamic State in the region is a constant threat to peace and stability. Though it has suffered setbacks in recent months, it has the wherewithal to conduct a terror incident in a regional area. Moreover, it can easily find local support structures to perpetuate activities in the region. Historically, IS inspired attacks have targeted sectarian vulnerabilities in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Recently, Ehsanullah Ehsan has tweeted that the Taliban have issued 27 instructions for foreign militant organisations to operate in Afghanistan. Among these include compulsory registration of their members with the Taliban authorities and non-utilisation of the territory against any other country. Reportedly, these demands have been rejected by the TTP. However, they have agreed to continue the negotiation process. If the news of these demands is true then we may be witnessing a rejuvenating or an evolving partnership between the Taliban and other foreign groups. This can set the tone of future actions of these foreign groups in the region. We may also see a systematic strengthening of Taliban’s control over these organisations. A natural result of an engagement between Taliban and non-Taliban foreign forces is that the frequency of outsourcing of their tactical actions may now be further increased through indigenous militant groups operating in other regional countries.
The partners in peace must keep these factors in mind with the start of the next stage of the Afghan peace process. Any impulsive reaction, during the critical phase, may ignite old enemies and expose deep dissensions among the partners thus jeopardising the whole peace initiative and a desire for lasting stability in the region.
Published in The Express Tribune, September 27th, 2020.
Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.
COMMENTS
Comments are moderated and generally will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive.
For more information, please see our Comments FAQ