Worrying estimates
The economy is expected to grow nominally in the current fiscal year, according to an Asian Development Bank report. After reading the report, we can safely say that this is the only good news for Pakistan in the entire document. This is because the growth estimate is in the lower half for the South Asia region — fifth out of eight countries — and among the lowest-ranked globally on the Wellness Index. The ADB projections also throw cold water on the government’s claim that Pakistan’s economy is recovering at the fastest pace in the region. India’s is expected to grow by 8% — the highest among the larger economies, while only Bhutan, Afghanistan, and Nepal have projected growth rates of under 2%.
Then comes the really bad news. The ADB estimates are based on the global Covid-19 pandemic subsiding by the end of 2020, which seems to be wishful thinking until a vaccine becomes available. Even if Pakistan avoids future spikes in infections, the impact of the virus on global demand will continue until normalcy resumes. That demand suppression will certainly hit Pakistani exports and could also impact essential imports. Remittances are also expected to decline due to job losses for Pakistani workers overseas, creating further currency concerns.
Meanwhile, the low Wellness Index ranking was also concerning. The index measures four pillars — physical wellness, referring to healthcare; intellectual wellness, referring to quality education; environmental wellness, referring to the environment; and social wellness, which involves social factors such as gender parity, income distribution, civil liberties, rule of law, and corruption. Only Afghanistan is below us in the region. Only Nigeria, Chad and CARs are below us on the global level, with 153 nations measured. Even in areas such as physical activity, the country ranks worryingly low. Over one-third of Pakistanis do not have sufficient physical activity. It appears that we, as a nation, are too lazy to even have fun if it involves exercise.
Published in The Express Tribune, September 18th, 2020.
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