Afghanistan: renewed hopes for peace

The release of the last group of Taliban prisoners by the Ashraf Ghani government has removed the crucial snag towards the intra-Afghan dialogue between the Afghan government’s negotiating team headed by Abdullah Abdullah and the Taliban headed by Sheikh Abdul Hakeem. The new development bodes well for peace in Afghanistan, depending on accommodation of each other’s point of view and provision of space.

While the United States of America is the biggest stakeholder in this peace process, Russia, China and Central Asian States also have direct interests due to their geographical proximity with Afghanistan. Similarly, Pakistan will also be one of the greatest beneficiaries because it shares a border of 2,430 kilometres with Afghanistan and has longstanding trade, cultural and religious ties. Pakistan has also remained embroiled in the conflict which has deeply affected not only its foreign policy but also socio-economic structure, particularly in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Therefore, the stakes for Pakistan in the eventual peace are quite high.

With the release of a 320 Taliban prisoners and likely release of the remaining 120 as well as the departure of the Afghan government’s negotiating team to the Qatari capital to prepare for the long-awaited peace talks with the Taliban, hopes for peace have revived once again. However, skeptics like Sher Jan Ahmadzai, the director of the Center for Afghanistan Studies, University of Nebraska Omaha, are of the opinion that according to publicly available information, the Taliban have followed only one of the seven conditions as agreed in its peace accord with the US by releasing 1,000 Afghan prisoners. While the rest of the conditions, more importantly severing of ties with militant organisations, Al Qaeda in particular, have yet to be met.

Observers of international repute have not been able to confirm whether the Taliban have severed their ties with Al Qaeda; and the Taliban have been unable to provide any proof of doing so. The UN reports of 2019 and May 2020 also suggest that the Taliban met frequently and remained in contact with Al Qaeda to coordinate “operational planning, training and the provision by the Taliban of safe havens for Al Qaeda members inside Afghanistan”. This is why Ryan Crocker, a diplomat during the times of Obama, has said “this deal is a surrender.”

An upsurge in the level of violence has been observed since the inking of the Doha Agreement between the US and the Taliban. The insistence of some Taliban fighters to continue with their jihad “until an Islamic system is established” lends credence to analysis that the Taliban are not actually interested in peace, but using this as a tool for the eventual takeover of Kabul to the exclusion of others.

Although the negotiating team headed by Abdullah is backed by the President Ashraf Ghani, the Taliban still do not recognise the Government of Afghanistan. This is considered a serious flaw in the Doha Agreement. Despite all its flaws, the present negotiating team represents all shades of opinion including the women in Afghanistan, barring the Taliban. Therefore, they are in a significantly stronger position at the negotiation table and would be able to shape up a political setup inclusive of all. One’s thinking is that the inclusion of the Afghan government in the final talks is imperative for durable peace. Consistent exclusion of the Afghan government from the process will end up in a mess.

Opinion polls in Afghanistan, portraying the mind of the Afghan, indicate that people are ready to accept some compromises for peace. But many question whether the Taliban can be held accountable for what they have promised. They also fear losing the meaningful achievements that came out of international engagement in Afghanistan, such as women’s empowerment, increased freedom of speech and a more vibrant press.

Certainly those hard-earned rights soaked with Afghan blood will be of primary focus at the table among other issues. In the given situation, the key for success lies with the Taliban as they had been given all sorts of concessions so far, the most significant of them being their removal from the international terrorists list. Therefore, the Taliban have to provide space and leverage to others, including the Afghan government.

Since all the aforementioned countries have high stakes in peace, they must play their role as guarantors. For the success of negotiations, terms of reference should also be framed, particularly those related to the future political setup and inclusion of the Taliban in mainstream political life of Afghanistan.

When all is said and done, the Taliban hold the key to peace. With their acceptance of the multi-party political system and laying down of arms, negotiations will ultimately lead to comprehensive peace and a democratic setup in Afghanistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 9^th, 2020.

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