Diriliş: Osmanlı

On August 21, President Erdogan announced that his country had achieved a milestone by discovering the largest natural gas reserves (320 billion cubic meters) in Turkish history. Any hopes that the discovery might relieve tensions between Turkey and Greece were stymied when both countries resumed military pressure tactics. Greece believes Turkey is illegally drilling in the Mediterranean, while Turkey asserts that the area is very much under its economic jurisdiction.

Suffice to say, along the 600-kilometre stretch of the Mediterranean, Turkey has now become a regional magnate. It soon also seeks to become an energy hub through the Trans-Anatolian pipeline, which connects the Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan to Europe. The production of the recent discovery is anticipated to start by 2023 — which will mark the centennial birth of modern Turkey.

Every nation has a treasure cache of stories and narratives which are abstracted and referenced time and again. Illustrations can be seen in how the British build on their threads of royalty even today, while Koreans like to revisit their campaign of independence from Japan. For the Turks, Ottoman history has become the most popular recurrent theme, especially in the past decade.

The aftermath of the Arab Spring in 2011 witnessed a time lapse during which Western powers somewhat lost interest in the region. This provided Turkey vantage to be more regionally assertive — evidence of which can be realised from the Turkish military’s extensive global footprint — the scale of which has not been since the days of the Ottoman empire.

Turkey is no newcomer in Middle Eastern geo-politics. After all, the Ottoman empire, ruled the region for 500 years. At the moment, Turkey is engaged in battles extending from Libya to Syria. In Syria, Turkey continues to safeguard the north-western areas still under its control where it is also carrying out rapid reconstruction. In northern Iraq, it is battling the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which it holds accountable for carrying out terrorism in Turkey. President Erdogan has even offered safe haven to Yemen’s President Hadi. In Libya, President Erdogan signed a deal with the UN-backed GNA government. Last year, in exchange for military support, Turkey and the General National Council demarcated maritime boundaries and the latter accorded Turkey drilling rights in waters off Greek islands.

Turkey was finally recovering from its 2018-2019 currency crisis when Covid-19 struck. The pandemic brought a halt to Turkey’s tourist industry and disrupted exports of its automobiles and other manufactured goods. The Turkish lira has lost about a fifth of its value against the dollar this year which although makes Turkish goods more attractive, does not balance out the cost of its imports. The IMF forecasts that the Turkish economy will contract by 5% in 2020, while the World Bank has set a benchmark for a 3.8% fall. At present, Turkey’s unemployment rate is at over 13%.

Much has been scripted about President Erdogan’s ambitions to revive Turkey’s Ottoman days. His strong stance on issues pertaining to the Muslim world (such as Palestine and Kashmir) have already made him the most popular leader in the Muslim world. Despite a faltering economy, Turkey is slowly but surely, extending its influence beyond the Middle East. It has already paved ways into Africa. Here it has a military base in Mogadishu, Somalia and has promised to restore the Ottoman time buildings on the Sudanese island of Suakin. In South Asia, it is ready to work on CPEC projects in Pakistan. Ankara has also planned to launch its national space programme shortly. The world might very well see a cosmos version of Dirilis: Osmanlı (Resurrection of the Ottomans) in the near future.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 9^th, 2020.

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