Russian vaccine
A stunning announcement from Russia regarding a potential vaccine for the Covid-19 coronavirus made headlines across the world on Tuesday. Unfortunately, on closer examination, what looked like fantastic news must now be taken with many pounds of salt. This is because, among other things, the Russian vaccine candidate, Sputnik-V, never underwent Phase 3 trials. Phase 3 trials are the most important stage of testing for medicines and vaccines. In this phase, thousands of test subjects are given the vaccine or a placebo. Then, they are watched for months to determine the drug’s effectiveness and side effects.
Russia has also released no safety data about the vaccine. Although Putin claims one of his daughters has already taken it, without proof, his statement can be dismissed as political, rather than scientific. Also, even if we believe the vaccine did work on Putin’s daughter and some other test subjects, without a broad-based trial, there is no data on its efficacy. The polio vaccine, for example, is about 99% effective if doses are delivered correctly. The measles vaccine is about 98%. On the other hand, some flu vaccines have efficacy rates as low as 8%, because the focus in their development is on minimising side effects.
Putin could honestly claim to have a working vaccine, even if its efficacy is only 1%. Even if the actual efficacy rate is reasonably high, it is worth noting that US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci previously said that the first Covid-19 vaccine — whoever develops it — will probably not have an efficacy rate higher than 60%. Given that Russia is not releasing data or even conducting proper trials, it is unlikely that Moscow will be providing the magic potion that kills Covid. In fact, such a rushed and untested drug could be disastrous for people with underlying health conditions.
But it might be just the shot in the arm that Putin personally needs. Despite recent election success, Putin’s popularity is near its lowest in his two decades in power. Success for Sputnik-V — a name which harkens to the golden age of Soviet space exploration — could change that.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 13th, 2020.
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