Winter is coming in America

The pandemic has severely hit businesses and jobs. People saw their dreams shattered. Funerals couldn’t be attended, bills couldn’t be paid, sports and other leisure activities have been forgotten. While many have seen the bad consequences of this pandemic, a huge chunk of Americans, however, are receiving free money from the government. And there are certain segments that are getting drenched in cash. I am not talking about the inequality and the ever-widening gap between the rich and the poor. That is a sad reality. However, what I am observing in America is a crazy shopping spree. It makes me wonder if Black Friday has had a climate change moment and arrived before its scheduled time of the year.

Millions are filing for unemployment benefits. Businesses are filing for government loans. That cash is helping businesses stay afloat and the free money given to individuals and families is keeping the economy alive. Pockets are lush with free and instant cash from the government. Buying and selling is unabated as if these are pandemic immune activities. Americans are notoriously averse to saving money. This is the land of crazy consumerism.

However, what alarms me is the coming winter. Right now, Trump is putting his name over the stimulus cheques people receive. After the presidential election in November, whoever comes out victorious wouldn’t continue with sending out this free cash. If Trump wins, he wouldn’t feel the need to make people happy anymore for re-election. And he is not the one who cares much about legacy, provided he knows what that word means and he can spell it correctly in his tweets. If Biden becomes president, it is hard to tell whether he would continue to dole out cash. The one undeniable fact is that this practice is not sustainable indefinitely. Moreover, the Republicans have the Senate majority in Congress. They would absolutely create hurdles in the day-to-day practice of the Biden presidency.

Most importantly, the jobs lost during this pandemic would absolutely not come back. During the 2008 financial crisis, companies mastered the art of extracting more work out of employees because of the precarious job market at the time. People put up with any working conditions given their fear of losing the job they held. Once the financial crisis was over, all the pre-crisis jobs did not return even when revenues and profits did. This time around there would be no exception.

Most of these jobs lost are gone forever. And that is what takes away my sleep at night. The jobs are lost but free money is circulating. So, people aren’t paying much attention. Once this money stops, the trouble will start. That is when people would start feeling the effects of unemployment. Crime will rise. The job market would become ever more precarious because right now many people are trying not to go to work because their pay cheques are smaller than the government stimulus benefits. And they are entitled to that stimulus money only if they remain jobless. But the competition over jobs would rise once the government money stops because then people would want to go back to work. The market would become precarious again and more work for less wages would become more vivid.

What the pandemic is doing to economies and businesses right now would be nothing compared to the PTSD of this pandemic. The effects of that would be felt for years to come. It would be years before the market stabilises and normalisation returns, provided it ever will.

For now, the cancer is being treated with painkillers. And while the cancer is worsening, people are on a buying spree. Anyone living in America who shares my worry should do what I might do: buy handguns and lots of bullets.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 13^th, 2020.

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