The folly of the rhetoric

One has often wondered what pushed Modi to abrogate Article 370 and uncover the sham that held Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. One Indian home minister, Gulzari Lal Nanda, in Lal Bahadur Shastri’s cabinet, had said as much in the parliament when debating the constitutional provision, “(Article 370) provides for the progressive application of the provisions of the Constitution to J&K; (it) is neither a wall nor a mountain, but…a tunnel. It is through this tunnel that a good deal of traffic has already passed and more will”. Nothing is left to imagination in this statement.

Article 370 was sold to Kashmir’s leadership for formalising and accepting her protectorate status with India even as India met a legal need by the United Nations — till then a fairly respected forum — to keep the disputed status of Kashmir alive till a plebiscite can be held. Of it there are detailed provisions in the UNSC Resolutions of which we quite deliberately avoid mention because it entails qualifying steps on ‘both’ sides of the CFL, now the LOC. Who will bell this cat? Perhaps an international arbiter who must briefly assume control of the disputed region and ensure the conditions and the process in letter and spirit. Or newer ways could be found within the status quo which if disturbed drastically is feared to impinge on the security of both India and Pakistan. For it the old must give way to the new. Of it there is no appetite; neither in thought nor substance. Not when rhetoric dictates all.

Even when Article 370 was being hollowed out and only the shell remained Kashmir’s political leadership remained sanguine. It also kept the Kashmiris and the world-at-large at bay, simply postponing a promised poll needed to ascertain the will of the people to sometime in the future when conditions are met and the time is ripe. Call it the exploitative big brother hubris despite the ceaseless suffering of the Kashmiris yearning for freedom. A hollowed out Article 370 was a reasonable sham for India to keep face in front of the international community even as she occupied a people and a region. If the Kashmiris were in a sustained freedom struggle over decades, yet there existed a parallel political face providing some democratic cover to the facade. With a stroke of pen Modi blew that cover. Article 370 was insidiously coined and cunningly sold. It was a sham when introduced and it exposed India when it was removed. That is something to build on not lament.

So then why did Modi do it? Recently a lot has gone about in the Indian media on the possible motives — mostly economic though geopolitical and political remain the ultimate ends. RSS’ Hindutva-driven ethnic-cleansing was the other but essentially Modi was consumed by his own rhetoric. Back in 2014 during the J&K Legislative Assembly elections the one mantra that rang was ‘Mission 44’. This was BJP’s declared intent to win the number of seats in the J&K assembly which would give it the required majority to recommend the revocation of Article 370. In the event BJP fell considerably short. The Kashmiris conveyed a clear message: ‘we will have little to do with Delhi, but will do all that is needed to keep Kashmir under our own control’. The turn-out in the national election was abysmal in Kashmir but they came out in droves in the state elections to reinforce that message. Mission 44 collapsed and Mission forced take-over was planned instead.

Yet nothing in legal parlance has changed. Kashmir was an internationally recognised dispute because of a spate of UNSC Resolutions which hold to this day, and thus continues to be a disputed region with or without Article 370. Kashmiris and the Pakistanis have their case on Jammu & Kashmir grounded in these resolutions and that is from where they must gain sustenance regardless of the shenanigans that Modi and his government may indulge in internally. Every time Modi moves on Kashmir it is a misstep. It has only gotten the cesspool stickier where a feared two-front threat is now a probability. How else may massive failure in policy manifest?

Smart policy opens space, options and choices; India’s has pushed it in a blind alley. Kashmir is on a fiery edge; China is now a direct party to a dispute which hitherto was bilateral or at worst three-way including the Kashmiris; Pakistanis aren’t easing off; and the world-at-large has taken a very serious note of the denial of human and fundamental rights to a people who are being oppressed under India’s suppressive tools. The UNSC has discussed the issue thrice in a year. Modi has had to shut the former state down with force for fear of political repercussion and aggressive agitation to Indian excesses. That has killed the local economy making deprivation widespread. This has been a losing spree for Modi and his ill-thought move in Kashmir. India’s rhetoric turned policy has consumed India into another Himalayan blunder.

Modi misjudged his resident power. So bowled over was he with his perceived success in the first term — of it there remains considerable criticism and a palpable push-back from the informed segments of the society — that he ventured far past what was rational. His brand of Hindu fascism gave him a remarkable electoral victory in 2019 but it was founded in bigotry and hate and only upturned the sociopolitical balance in India. Misplaced idealism has put India to shame. Other than external buffets, internally too this country isn’t settling down for quite some time.

Napoleonic wisdom suggests never interrupting the enemy when he is making a mistake but indeed if some good is to be sought from this malicious undertaking it can only be in negotiating a way out. This unfortunate region might benefit if India can settle through dialogue with the Kashmiris and Pakistanis, and the Chinese now — thanks to some bankrupt foundation in policy and strategic overreach. India and Modi have bitten far more than they can chew and one option is to let them choke over it. It might though unnecessarily prolong the suffering of the Kashmiris. They have already paid a heavy price for their rights and freedom. A continuing morass will only get intense and suck both Pakistan and China into its affliction. The other is for the world to intervene to stave off what is turning into a genocide and ethnic cleansing. The world set itself a standard in Serbia and Kosovo; it is time to save another people from another threat of extinction at the hands of state apparatus.

Rhetoric has a way of growing on you. See what it has done to Modi. And even as we negotiate the paces in a diabolic South Asian environment it will always help to keep the perspective right. More ominously though if those at the helm can sift the right from the loud. How the loud may permeate into larger sentiment and then policy will always loom large. The trick is to know how much is right and how much needs to be imbibed. Anyway, rhetoric must never be a policy.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 9^th, 2020.

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