And the downward spiral continues

Throughout the nine years of civil war in Syria, President Assad has relied on raw power to push back opponents of his family’s decades-old grip of power. However, even with the civil war drawing to a close, Syria faces new threats. Dangers which cannot be deflected with bombs.

The war has strangled the Syrian economy to an extent that it now faces an acute economic crisis that has already pauperised its people. The accelerated rate of inflation entails that those dependent on the government for their earnings are hardly left with sufficient means to cover their basic needs.

Prior to the civil war, 50 Syrian pounds equalled a US dollar. Presently, the black-market rate is 3,500 pounds to a dollar. The financial crisis in neighbouring Lebanon has further compounded the situation since many Syrians kept their money in Lebanese banks. Unofficial capital controls in the latter, have prevented Syrians from withdrawing dollars. In rebel-held strongholds within Syria, people have already switched to the Turkish lira. The worthlessness of the Syrian pound can be seen in the images streaming across Twitter on how the currency has been reduced to rolling cigarettes.

Southeast Syria is already embroiled in protests against the falling quality of life. Stats showcase that at the end of 2019, unemployment approximated 40%. The Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting government restrictions has further increased job loss. Moreover, there is continuous fighting of different parties on ground — Hezbollah factions versus Israel and sporadic Russian bombing despite the joint patrols being carried out with Turkey.

Another indication of disorder within the Syrian government was the abrupt dismissal of prime minister Imad Khamis — in a move to divert blame for the country’s economic contraction. Meanwhile, in order to contain an inferno, security forces are thoughtlessly arresting those highlighting the government’s shortcomings on social media.

To add to the prevalent hardship, on June 17, the United States imposed additional sanctions on the Syrian regime. Named after a Syrian army defector who fled with thousands of photographs of Syrians tortured and killed, the Caesar Act, compels the US president to sanction anyone who does business with or provides substantial funds to any aspect of the Syrian regime.

Syria has already been subject to US and EU sanctions, which has resulted in the freezing up of a significant number of both state and private assets. However, now for the first time, Russian and Iranian entities connected to the Syrian regime will be subject to sanctions as well. It should not be forgotten that had it not been for generous military assistance from both these countries, the regime would not have managed to reclaim most of the country. Both these allies already have Western sanctions imposed on them and are thus, unlikely to provide financial bail. In fact, it raises the question of how President Assad will pay them back for their support.

The Caesar Act also signals towards another US-China tussle in the offing as China’s Syria policy derives from the main objective to maintain a constructive collaboration with a stable government in Damascus so as to establish a sustainable economic partnership that is in accordance with and in furtherance of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The new sanctions will unquestionably delay, if not entirely prevent, the reconstruction of Syria and impede the beginning of the healing time required. There is also worry that contrary to their objective of seeking justice for the Syrian citizens, the sanctions will end up aggravating the prevailing conditions of the Syrian populace, whilst the Assad family will continue with its rule.

Now, more than ever, is the time for diplomacy and finesse. 

Published in The Express Tribune, June 24^th, 2020.

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