Not over till it’s over
All previous attempts to get the peace process off the ground have been derailed by one spoiler or the other
No government right now can envy the Afghan government’s position. More and more it seems that Afghanistan right now is pretty low on Washington’s priority list. Exhausted as it was by almost two decades of an ill-planned conflict, the United States was already desperate to pull out from the conflict-ravaged country. The eye-opening Afghanistan Papers had shown the world how little clarity there was in the endeavour from the get go.
All that was before the novel coronavirus pandemic exploded and found a new epicentre in the United States with its full fatal potential. Covid-19 was enough on its own to redirect Washington’s focus to domestic affairs. And then the killing of George Floyd, an African American, took place at the hands of a white policeman, triggering perhaps the most significant social justice movement in the United States since the Civil Rights Movement.
With all this as backdrop, it is only natural that the leadership in Kabul is increasingly desperate. In a high-risk move aimed at convincing the Taliban to begin peace talks, the Afghan government has started releasing thousands of inmates affiliated with the insurgent group. Many of the recently released fighters are eager to take up arms again against what they see as an illegitimate order.
Time will tell if the Afghan government’s last-ditch gambit will succeed and whether talks will proceed the way it hopes. Those who have observed efforts to restore peace in the war-torn country must have learnt by now not to get their hopes up. All previous attempts to get the peace process off the ground have been derailed by one spoiler or the other. And if the Taliban notice themselves in a strong position, they could always decide why talk about something you can take by force. All one can say is it won’t be over till it is over.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 15th, 2020.
All that was before the novel coronavirus pandemic exploded and found a new epicentre in the United States with its full fatal potential. Covid-19 was enough on its own to redirect Washington’s focus to domestic affairs. And then the killing of George Floyd, an African American, took place at the hands of a white policeman, triggering perhaps the most significant social justice movement in the United States since the Civil Rights Movement.
With all this as backdrop, it is only natural that the leadership in Kabul is increasingly desperate. In a high-risk move aimed at convincing the Taliban to begin peace talks, the Afghan government has started releasing thousands of inmates affiliated with the insurgent group. Many of the recently released fighters are eager to take up arms again against what they see as an illegitimate order.
Time will tell if the Afghan government’s last-ditch gambit will succeed and whether talks will proceed the way it hopes. Those who have observed efforts to restore peace in the war-torn country must have learnt by now not to get their hopes up. All previous attempts to get the peace process off the ground have been derailed by one spoiler or the other. And if the Taliban notice themselves in a strong position, they could always decide why talk about something you can take by force. All one can say is it won’t be over till it is over.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 15th, 2020.