Coronavirus in a lesser governed state
On a wider scale, coronavirus has altered the face of the global economy like never before
A Reuters file photo.
This is our next challenge. Maybe it already is here, just that we don’t know of it for lack of testing kits and for a laissez faire approach in how we deal with issues even when we know better. We haven’t mapped our most-at-risk segments of the population and not tested enough people to know the real spread and depth of how Pakistan may already be infected with coronavirus. We only know those who enter from the Taftan-Iran border and quarantine them in our special way. Among them, those that are responsible, or helpless, or persons of lesser means and influence, or cannot buy their way out, remain. Others simply manage out of even this sham detention. Of those who travel from China into Pakistan, or now call this country their second home, we do the perfunctory check only of their body temperature and in testimony of our eternal friendship outscaling both the Himalayas and the Indian Ocean, we earn their kudos.
The health minister assures us that in the last month and a half — since we woke up to a disease which was killing people at random — we had had only 20 confirmed cases of the coronavirus. That beats the odds by the hugest margin going by theorems of exponential growth which is how the epidemic, now a pandemic, is spreading. There is this extremely well-elaborated narration of “Exponential Growth and Epidemics” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tlxDvrg&feature=youtu.be) which by all counts, if true should have seen numbers multiply in 10s every few days. But we somehow are still lucky to be in a very selectively linear growth. And without any mitigating intervention from our side. This trumps science and mathematics, both.
The explanation in the video above talks of the inflection point when the exponential growth begins to taper off and then decline. It occurs on two counts: when all are infected with the virus and there is none left to add to the tally, or when remedial measures kick in to mitigate the spread through care, discipline, precaution, isolation and extreme hygiene in individual and collective lives which stem the tide and ultimately reduce it to zero. It’s a mathematical model of an epidemic and its growth path is based on realistic data establishing a 15-20% increase daily from the previous day’s numbers — compounding to excessively high rates qualifying it to the point of an epidemic. A rough calculation suggests that numbers of afflicted must increase in multiples of 10 over every 15 day period. Our official statements, of course, don’t match such profound scrutiny. That’s miraculous despite us being a pedestrian society.
I am a man of science and mathematics and know well the society I live in, and the governance in vogue under various governments and the lack of seriousness that pervades the entire structure of our state and its people; dengue of last summer is the case in point. We are a poor people of a poorer nation in a society which is even worse for its habits in collective living. We may have thus no other recourse than to believe the daily fodder from the health minister that “all is okay”. It’s a different matter that the WHO has upgraded the level of the spread to a pandemic. If that is how the epidemic will grow because that is what nature through science and mathematics ordains, we should assume that we all will soon be afflicted unless we did something about it. A society that prides itself in not sticking to norms is inherently unhygienic in how it subsists, and leaves a lot to chance by way of trusting heavenly intervention is not an ideal place to beat the epidemical growth model.
But here is what is happening in Chagai, close to where an isolation facility has been created for those who arrive from the heavily-infested Iran: one, they all live in a tented village for sequestration — hopefully it does the job though it isn’t as sexy as raising two hospitals in 10 days; two, they all amble around freely visiting the local bazaars of Chagai and their tea-shops — reports now indicate that shops have been set up at the facility as an evolving enterprise. This should soon exponentially infect all of Chagai for being the backwater in an already poor state, the locals fear. And finally, with slight greasing of the right palms those quarantined can flee the confinement and pay their carriers handsomely to take them home. So much for communal discipline and responsibility. Those afflicted still might survive the disease but will bring others down that they pass on to. But to know such is beyond their pail.
That’s the society we have built for ourselves over generations leaving little to whinge over. It is instead the moment to do something. The NSC has done well to meet and bring focus back on what is already a huge medical emergency. When we wish to enforce something our recourse of choice is the security apparatus. They can help. Just this week the PM has allocated billions more in fulfillment of his promise to make five million houses, and create jobs and trigger a part of economy with this building frenzy. The coronavirus soon might upend such economic initiatives needing those billions to provide some protection to the people instead. The media too will do well by moving from ethereal matters in political game-playing to something which is far graver and imminent as a lockdown looms to save lives across the country. Knowing the society we are such decisions will need to be enforced.
The decision to cancel the 23rd March Parade is opportune. Using the expense for the parade on fighting the menace of the coronavirus epidemic is a far more nationalist thing to do. Closing educational institutions till we have ridden the storm out is equally good, though a tad late. There shouldn’t be any hesitation to add over time the advice and enforcement of avoiding all assemblies whether social, organisational or religious, public or private. After all there are widespread changes brought to how religious functions are being undertaken at the holiest of sites across all religions. We should be able to ring in changes compatible to the needs of fighting the challenge of coronavirus and limit its deadly reach.
On a wider scale, coronavirus has altered the face of the global economy like never before. Economies are stalled, production ceased, consumption restricted and trading impossible. The world is in a state of suspension. Oil has taken a hit, as have stock markets across the world. People and states are holding on to their liquid cash. They anticipate using it for more emergent needs driven by the pandemic. We too need to control our expenditure holding onto what we have till the storm is over. Science doesn’t lie and numbers even lesser. It is good to pay heed now and mend what is either already broken or about to despite the bliss of our ignorance, and perhaps some delayed reaction.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 15th, 2020.
The health minister assures us that in the last month and a half — since we woke up to a disease which was killing people at random — we had had only 20 confirmed cases of the coronavirus. That beats the odds by the hugest margin going by theorems of exponential growth which is how the epidemic, now a pandemic, is spreading. There is this extremely well-elaborated narration of “Exponential Growth and Epidemics” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tlxDvrg&feature=youtu.be) which by all counts, if true should have seen numbers multiply in 10s every few days. But we somehow are still lucky to be in a very selectively linear growth. And without any mitigating intervention from our side. This trumps science and mathematics, both.
The explanation in the video above talks of the inflection point when the exponential growth begins to taper off and then decline. It occurs on two counts: when all are infected with the virus and there is none left to add to the tally, or when remedial measures kick in to mitigate the spread through care, discipline, precaution, isolation and extreme hygiene in individual and collective lives which stem the tide and ultimately reduce it to zero. It’s a mathematical model of an epidemic and its growth path is based on realistic data establishing a 15-20% increase daily from the previous day’s numbers — compounding to excessively high rates qualifying it to the point of an epidemic. A rough calculation suggests that numbers of afflicted must increase in multiples of 10 over every 15 day period. Our official statements, of course, don’t match such profound scrutiny. That’s miraculous despite us being a pedestrian society.
I am a man of science and mathematics and know well the society I live in, and the governance in vogue under various governments and the lack of seriousness that pervades the entire structure of our state and its people; dengue of last summer is the case in point. We are a poor people of a poorer nation in a society which is even worse for its habits in collective living. We may have thus no other recourse than to believe the daily fodder from the health minister that “all is okay”. It’s a different matter that the WHO has upgraded the level of the spread to a pandemic. If that is how the epidemic will grow because that is what nature through science and mathematics ordains, we should assume that we all will soon be afflicted unless we did something about it. A society that prides itself in not sticking to norms is inherently unhygienic in how it subsists, and leaves a lot to chance by way of trusting heavenly intervention is not an ideal place to beat the epidemical growth model.
But here is what is happening in Chagai, close to where an isolation facility has been created for those who arrive from the heavily-infested Iran: one, they all live in a tented village for sequestration — hopefully it does the job though it isn’t as sexy as raising two hospitals in 10 days; two, they all amble around freely visiting the local bazaars of Chagai and their tea-shops — reports now indicate that shops have been set up at the facility as an evolving enterprise. This should soon exponentially infect all of Chagai for being the backwater in an already poor state, the locals fear. And finally, with slight greasing of the right palms those quarantined can flee the confinement and pay their carriers handsomely to take them home. So much for communal discipline and responsibility. Those afflicted still might survive the disease but will bring others down that they pass on to. But to know such is beyond their pail.
That’s the society we have built for ourselves over generations leaving little to whinge over. It is instead the moment to do something. The NSC has done well to meet and bring focus back on what is already a huge medical emergency. When we wish to enforce something our recourse of choice is the security apparatus. They can help. Just this week the PM has allocated billions more in fulfillment of his promise to make five million houses, and create jobs and trigger a part of economy with this building frenzy. The coronavirus soon might upend such economic initiatives needing those billions to provide some protection to the people instead. The media too will do well by moving from ethereal matters in political game-playing to something which is far graver and imminent as a lockdown looms to save lives across the country. Knowing the society we are such decisions will need to be enforced.
The decision to cancel the 23rd March Parade is opportune. Using the expense for the parade on fighting the menace of the coronavirus epidemic is a far more nationalist thing to do. Closing educational institutions till we have ridden the storm out is equally good, though a tad late. There shouldn’t be any hesitation to add over time the advice and enforcement of avoiding all assemblies whether social, organisational or religious, public or private. After all there are widespread changes brought to how religious functions are being undertaken at the holiest of sites across all religions. We should be able to ring in changes compatible to the needs of fighting the challenge of coronavirus and limit its deadly reach.
On a wider scale, coronavirus has altered the face of the global economy like never before. Economies are stalled, production ceased, consumption restricted and trading impossible. The world is in a state of suspension. Oil has taken a hit, as have stock markets across the world. People and states are holding on to their liquid cash. They anticipate using it for more emergent needs driven by the pandemic. We too need to control our expenditure holding onto what we have till the storm is over. Science doesn’t lie and numbers even lesser. It is good to pay heed now and mend what is either already broken or about to despite the bliss of our ignorance, and perhaps some delayed reaction.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 15th, 2020.