Can Imran Khan turn the country around?

The curse of the big office may be upon us all

We have got so used to listening to tall claims and meaningless talk from most of our leaders that only a few are taken seriously. The question arises how long are the people of Pakistan going to be fed with empty talk and why is that leaders are not prepared to share the reality. There could be several reasons for it but what appears likely that they do not understand the complexity of the challenges Pakistan is facing and have simplistic answers to offer which they presume would eventually succeed. The other is they do fully comprehend but for expedient reasons keep their views and solutions to themselves. This is largely true when they realise that their hard prescriptions to move the country forward will not go well. In either case it is the state and the people who suffer as problems keep mounting. This is exactly what is happening in Pakistan today.

The PM keeps on repeating that we are moving toward economic prosperity and political stability projecting an optimistic picture. He assumes that foreign investment would be on the rise, tourism would gain momentum and inflation would be under control. In essence, the message is: bear the hardships for a better tomorrow.

The assurances by the PM and ministers not to worry about the grim economic situation are neither new for the people of Pakistan or for those living in several developing countries. What is different this time was that the expectations of the people from Imran Khan were very high whereas the situation has turned out be just the opposite as inflation mounts to 14.5% and economic plight of the lower income groups in particular is getting worse day by day. The more serious aspect is that unbiased and reputable economists are of the view that we are going downhill. And prospects of recovery in the near future are remote while the debt burden is increasing manifold.

As far as the political landscape is concerned, it is least assuring. The PTI itself is facing dissensions from within. This grumbling is logical as the economy falters and hits the constituencies with politicians feeling they are losing support. And relations with its own allies souring, with PML-Q in the forefront, are for everyone to see. These developments should be handled with tact otherwise they would further weaken the government’s performance and the economy.

The other worrying aspect to which columnist and TV anchors are pointing is that the PM lacks grasp of the complexity of the challenges. His understanding and prior experience was restricted to building a cancer hospital, philanthropic ventures and the world of sports that are nowhere close to running the affairs of a highly complex country like Pakistan. This may be partly true but I would maintain that he had relatively more experience and greater exposure to the world than any of the recent PML-N and PPP leaders who were our prime minister’s since 1990. Neither Nawaz Sharif nor Benazir Bhutto or Asif Zardari had hardly any relevant previous experience when they initially became prime ministers.

It is rare that politicians in Pakistan have come prepared to hold the office of prime minister. After a while, they do, however, learn how to manage the levers of power and run the government provided they have the right attitude and a certain level of ability and political acumen.

In case of Imran Khan it is his obstinacy that acts as an impediment rather than lack of experience or intellectual caliber. His overconfidence at times is his greatest weakness. Where he is erring most is his intense dislike of political opponents and disregard for parliamentary practices. Having harmonious relations with the military certainly is creditable but not a substitute for bypassing democratic norms and having a working relationship with the opposition leadership.

The rapidly growing budget deficit that has exceeded by Rs11,000 billion reflects that the grip of the government on financial matters is slipping. No doubt, the PTI government inherited an emaciated economy but the situation has got much worse since they took charge. IMF restrictions on expenditure are hitting the poor segments of society the most. Opening of homes or free food for the poor is a good move but its impact in a country of 220 million would be miniscule and symbolic.

The government seems caught in one crisis after another. This indicates its lack of preparedness and an ad hoc attitude toward governance. Opposition parties have been insinuating that these policies are a result of the manipulation of the business mafia. They, in league with party bigwigs, are deliberately creating the current wheat or sugar crisis. The government needs to come clean on it.

When the government is already under pressure, it is required to comply with FATF conditionalities. In Pakistan, informal economy plays a significant role and is estimated to contribute a high percentage to the GDP. All this has to change and this task too has fallen in the lap of this government.

In all fairness, the PTI faces a major challenge of governance. And it has come at a time when it has assumed power for the first time. It has experienced ministers and parliamentarians that had migrated from the PPP, the PML-N and other parties but they have yet to gel as a unified team.

Imran Khan’s leadership and his ability to turn around the country would largely depend on dealing with internal contradictions within his party; and on dampening his hostility toward the major opposition parties and focusing on strengthening parliament and democratic governance. Above all he should give highest priority on promoting human development that is education and health services. Failing to act would result in going round and round piling up misery for our people.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, February 5^th, 2020.

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