PM Imran Khan. PHOTO: FILE
It was not only the issue of credibility of Pakistan vis-à-vis two Muslim countries, Turkey and Malaysia, who trusted Islamabad to participate in the “state of affairs of the Muslim ummah” summit in Kuala Lumpur, but the manner in which PM Imran Khan backed out ostensibly relegating to the Saudi and UAE pressure.
The dawn of 2020 tends to expose the country to lethal challenges to its ability to make independent decisions. The “mother of all crises” erupted in the Persian Gulf after the assassination of Maj Gen Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) of Iran and the commander of the Quds Brigade. This will certainly put Pakistan in a difficult situation. This is because a two-pronged pressure may be exerted on Islamabad by the US and Saudi Arabia to side with them against a possible military confrontation with Iran.
Since its inception, Pakistan has faced challenges to its sovereignty from its so-called allies. It is not only the US which has blatantly interfered in the internal affairs of Pakistan but also some Gulf countries because of their economic clout in the form of more than five billion dollars of deposits with the SBP and millions of Pakistani workers residing in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Pakistan is the world’s sixth largest populated country and the seventh nuclear state. Yet, Pakistan’s sovereignty is compromised because of its fragile economy, poor governance and leadership which lack courage and perseverance to make and implement decisions independently.
The situation emanating after the Soleimani assassination is nothing less than a dangerous global crisis which will definitely test Pakistan’s ability to resist American and Saudi pressure to tilt in their favour against Iran. Pakistan’s test is three-fold. First, in perceived American and Saudi efforts to drag Pakistan in their conflict with Iran a day after Soleimani’s death, the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, telephoned Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff in a clear signal that Washington wants Islamabad’s support in case of a possible American military confrontation with Iran. In that case, Pakistan will face serious political turmoil as majority of the people would not support siding with the US and Saudi Arabia against Iran.
Second, if Pakistan decides to stay neutral, it faces the threat of economic reprisals from pro-American Gulf allies. This crisis in the Gulf will further test Pakistan’s ability to resist American-Saudi pressure.
Third, in the last decade and a half, Pakistan’s sovereignty was seriously breached when sustained American drone attacks on its tribal areas killed several hundreds. Pakistan’s only response was to protest regardless of the fact that while targeting perceived high-value terrorists, the US killed countless Pakistani nationals.
The year 2011 can be called a watershed year as far as compromising sovereignty is concerned. First was the arrest of CIA agent Raymond Davis on charges of double murder in Lahore, in January 2011. Davis faced a court trial but enormous pressure was exerted on Pakistan when the American secretary of state, Hilary Clinton, approached the high-ups in Islamabad to grant Davis a pardon. Approaching the foreign minister, prime minister and president of President for Davis’ freedom was a reflection of America’s influence in the civil-military establishment of Pakistan. Ultimately, Davis was freed by the court upon the payment of blood money.
Second was Operation Geronimo or the Abbottabad Operation of May 2, 2011, launched under the directive of then American president, Barack Obama, to capture Osama bin Laden (OBL), dead or alive. OBL, termed an international terrorist with a head money of $50 million by the US, was found in a well-maintained compound where he was killed by the invading US Navy Seals. American helicopters flew from Afghanistan and sneaked 200 kilometres inside Pakistan which was a blatant violation of the country’s sovereignty. The fallout of Operation Geronimo was felt for months in Pakistan in the form of the Memogate and a commission formed by parliament to probe why and how the US managed to violate Pakistan’s airspace and enter its territory.
Third, in November 2011, several Pakistani soldiers were killed by US forces from Afghanistan. Termed the Salala Incident, the savage act enraged the people of Pakistan but the government reacted by merely suspending NATO supplies for a while. Only a protest note was handed over to the American Embassy in Islamabad and the matter, like the dubious release of Raymond Davis and Operation Geronimo, was hushed up.
Taking a cue from history, the issue of Pakistan’s sovereignty may be compromised in the wake of the Iran-US conflict. Pompeo calling Gen Bajwa means Washington intends to seek Islamabad’s support and cooperation in case the crisis escalates. In that scenario, Pakistan faces a serious threat of instability because popular resentment against the American military’s invasion of Iran will be enormous.
Sovereignty is an asset for any country and for Pakistan, its national interests and national security must not be compromised. Yet, our leadership has long been least mindful of salvaging the country’s sovereignty from external pressures. The road to sovereignty for Pakistan passes through a strong economic, technological and industrial base; good governance; a clear and courageous leadership; and vibrant democracy.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 10th, 2020.
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