Rupee continues to recover, gains Rs4.16 in four months

May strengthen further on expectations of foreign currency inflows

KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee has maintained a gradual uptrend against the US dollar since the beginning of current fiscal year in July and is anticipated to gain more ground in the remaining eight months amid expectations of increase in foreign currency inflows.

The rupee gradually strengthened Rs4.16 or 2.60% in the past around four months to Rs155.88 to the US dollar in the inter-bank market on Friday, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

“The rupee may recover to 145 to the greenback by June 30, 2020,” Forex Association of Pakistan (FAP) President Malik Bostan projected while talking to The Express Tribune.

“A notable drop in the demand for dollars due to reduction in imports and a surge in the rate of return on banks’ fixed deposit schemes caused an increase in the supply of dollars in the market and helped strengthen the rupee in the past four months,” he said.

Elaborating, he said domestic investors had relocated their investment into rupee-based fixed deposit schemes from investment in dollars after the rate of return on the schemes increased to around 13-14% per annum compared to around 7-8% about two years ago.

The situation pushed local investors to sell dollars at the currency dealers’ counters, which increased the supply of dollars.

The eight-year high benchmark interest rate at 13.25%, which helped banks offer a higher rate of return, also encouraged foreigners to invest in government-backed sovereign debt instruments like treasury bills. They resumed investment in such debt instruments in June after a gap of 25 months.

“With fresh foreign investment of $88 million in T-bills on October 24 (Thursday), total dollar inflows (into debt instruments) reached close to $440 million since July 2019 to date,” Topline Securities CEO Muhammad Sohail said in a short message.

Experts have anticipated foreign investment of around $2-3 billion in debt instruments by June 30, 2020, which will strengthen the country’s foreign currency reserves.

Outlook

Bostan said the rupee may recover to Rs145 to the greenback ahead of billions of dollars in foreign direct investment notably from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Malaysia and China.

“Friendly countries have planned to invest a total of $50 billion in Pakistan over the next 8-10 years,” he said.

According to Bostan, many other foreign investors are waiting for Pakistan to be upgraded from the grey to white list by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in February 2020. “Pakistan has taken tough measures against terror financing and money laundering. The measures will help the country achieve the desired goal.”

Secondly, the currency dealers are anticipated to increase the supply of dollars to around $3-4 billion in the current fiscal year compared to $1.5 billion in the previous fiscal year.

“More people are coming to our counters to sell dollars and other foreign currencies since the rupee has maintained the uptrend. This has allowed us to supply $300-350 million per month to the inter-bank market compared to $100-150 million per month earlier,” he said.

He said an additional supply of $5-6 billion was anticipated as the government had placed a system to detect under and over-invoicing in imports and exports of goods through seaports and airports. The system allows officials at the ports to carefully check quoted prices of imported and exported goods and take punitive action if anyone is found guilty of tampering with import and export documents.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 27^th, 2019.

Like Business on Facebook, follow @TribuneBiz on Twitter to stay informed and join in the conversation.