Is it premature to celebrate ‘success’ of PM’s US visit?

As Imran gets overwhelmed by the rousing welcome given to him on his return from Washington

The euphoria is not over yet. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf supporters and voters are still in jubilation mode after Prime Minister Imran Khan’s ‘successful’ visit to the United States. Imran himself was overwhelmed by the rousing welcome given to him by his supporters on his return from Washington. He said he felt as if he had won the world cup for the country.

The reason the PTI is over the moon because the Prime Minister’s visit, even according to independent observers, went too well. The Foreign Office acknowledged that the outcome of the trip was beyond expectations. It noted that the visit helped reset ties, which remained stagnant since 2015.

Imran’s visit had two aspects — one was optics and the other was substantive. In terms of optics and PR, the result was pleasantly unexpected and surprising for Pakistan. Before the visit, Imran and his team were unsure what to expect from President Donald Trump, given his past diatribe against Pakistan. There was nervousness in the Pakistani camp that anything could happen because of the unpredictable nature of Trump. On the contrary, Trump handed Imran a major PR victory when on the one hand he publicly praised Pakistan’s role in facilitating the Afghan peace process, while at the same time offered to mediate on the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India. The brief Imran was carrying with him to the White House included the Kashmir dispute and current Indo-Pak tensions as one of the talking points. He, however, was not expecting Trump to take the lead and discuss the longstanding issue publicly. India was quick to reject Trump’s statement. The uproar in the neighbouring country is an indication that India is upset over Pakistan once again being at the centre stage of the US policy, to strike a peace deal in Afghanistan. That itself is a diplomatic victory for Pakistan, given India wanted the Trump administration to sideline Islamabad.

The primary objective of the visit was to discuss the Afghan endgame. Imran was invited to the White House as US recognition of Pakistan’s positive role in bringing the Taliban onto the negotiating table. Trump met Imran at the White House in hopes that Pakistan would now go a step further. The US has key demands from Pakistan. One is to persuade the Taliban for a permanent ceasefire and the other to convince them for holding direct talks with the Kabul administration. Two sets of negotiations took place during the Prime Minister’s visit. One held at the White House and the other at Pentagon, where it is believed that the actual nitty gritty of the Afghan endgame must have been discussed.

At this stage, there is no clarity as to what specific commitments Pakistan has made with the US. Prime Minister Imran, before departing from Washington, said he had assured President Trump that Pakistan would do “whatever in its power” to facilitate the Afghan endgame.

Suppose Pakistan has given firm assurances to the Trump administration that it will convince the Taliban for a permanent ceasefire and an intra-Afghan dialogue, the question is: does Pakistan still exercise that much leverage over the Taliban? Pakistan publicly maintains that it has ‘limited’ influence over the insurgent group. Even in private discussions, Foreign Office and security officials insist that the Taliban are not in Pakistan’s pockets. But the US is not convinced. It strongly believes that Pakistan is the only country which can achieve what others can’t in terms of an Afghan peace deal. The worry is that if Pakistan fails to deliver on the commitments that its civil and military leadership have given to the US, the repercussions can be swift. Trump, who is known for swinging between one extreme to another, can easily turn the guns towards Pakistan if his administration is not able to get the desired results in the ongoing Afghan peace talks. Therefore, it is premature to celebrate the outcome of the Prime Minister’s visit.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 29^th, 2019.

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