Pakistan’s stunning diplomatic coup

As Trump-Imran summit took place, despite reservations from India, Afghanistan and the American establishment

“People don’t like good leaders, they like aggressive leaders,” said my Ethiopian Uber driver, as I landed in Washington, DC to cover the Trump-Imran Khan Summit. It’s rare to find common ground between critics and supporters of the two polarising leaders but virtually everyone agrees that they are aggressive. The fact that this summit took place, despite reservations from India, Afghanistan and the American establishment, is because the two leaders are aggressively pursuing their political agendas: Trump wants to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan and Imran wants to end Pakistan’s diplomatic isolation to usher in a new era of economic growth, fueled by foreign investment.

For a behind-the-scenes understanding of how Pakistan orchestrated this diplomatic coup — months after being an outcast and blamed for everything wrong in the region — I spoke to Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister; Zulfi Bukhari, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister for Overseas Pakistanis; and Michael Kugelman, Deputy Director of the Asia Program at the Wilson Center.

America was not ready to meet Pakistan, let alone engage constructively, when the current government took over. We were weighed down by our reputation as a global migraine. This is when Shah Mahmood Qureshi, during his visit to the US for the UNGA meetings in 2018, met and invited American Senator Lindsey Graham to visit Pakistan. That’s where the senator — who is very close to Trump — met Imran and was impressed by his consistent position on holding peace talks with the Taliban. He knew this would be music to Donald Trump’s ears, who wants to “bring the boys home”, as part of his campaign promise to end expensive foreign wars.

Despite their political aggression, both Trump and Imran Khan are personally allergic to military conflict. Consider Imran Khan’s reputation as Taliban Khan, for wanting to negotiate with the Taliban and mitigate further bloodshed, before it was a popular position. And consider Donald Trump’s love fest with North Korea or decision to stand down American bombers ready to fire on Iran, after Iran shot down an American drone recently. Despite their flaws, the success of this summit and budding romance between the two is rooted in their ideological opposition to military conflict.

“The meeting with Trump itself is the win for Pakistan,” Michael Kugelman shared with me over coffee while the two leaders met at the White House. However, Pakistan scored three big wins beyond the meeting. The first was Trump offering to serve as a mediator on Kashmir, throwing decades of choreographed Indian diplomacy under the water, in response to one master stroke of a leading question by Imran Khan. The second win, according to Pakistan’s FM, is that we made no new commitments on Afghan peace talks. Pakistan simply reiterated the sincerity of our intentions to support the peace process. This is a stunning diplomatic coup for Pakistan, securing a lot, while giving up little in return, causing heart ache in New Delhi and Kabul.

The third win was Khan’s packed jalsa which enabled him to defuse the primary attack against his legitimacy, on being selected, with Mike Pompeo, the American Secretary of State, commenting on his rockstar reception. The jalsa strengthened Imran’s hand as we walked into the White House, the morning after.

Here’s what happens next. Donald Trump is determined to begin withdrawing US troops during his election campaign in 2020. He is betting the house on Pakistan, at the expense of India and Afghanistan. Trump prioritises personal relationships over state-to-state relationships (consider North Korea). Pakistan needs to play its Trump card, intelligently over the coming months to produce a geo-political boom and counter a recessionary economy. If Imran Khan delivers, he will be remembered as the man who brought peace to Afghanistan, forced India to the negotiating table and turned around the economy. Imran Khan is trying to bend the long arc of history in Pakistan’s favour. We will know within 12 months if he will make history or become history.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 28^th, 2019.

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