No country for old men
Imran can't be a leader by sitting idle while democratic principles are deteriorating
The writer is a lawyer based in Lahore and also teaches at the Lahore University of Management Sciences. He holds an LL M from New York University where he was a Hauser Global Scholar. He tweets @HNiaziii
The subtle arts of diplomacy were not on display when the Prime Minister of Pakistan addressed the nation last week in the late hours of Tuesday. Imran Khan promised to go after the “thieves who left the country badly in debt”. It just so happens that all of those ‘thieves’ are members of the opposition.
NAB’s hammer has fallen on the old guard — those who have been the faces of Pakistan’s political circus for decades: Zardari, Nawaz, Shehbaz, Dar, Hamza. As more references are coming soon, it is hard to find a political opponent of Imran Khan who doesn’t have a criminal case pending against them. Even Altaf Hussain is facing the Scotland Yard these days.
Things are bleak for those who, for so long, had been the status quo of Pakistan’s politics. True, they have wriggled out of criminal cases before, and have even come back from jail to win massive electoral victories, but it doesn’t look like that particular part of history will be repeating itself this time around.
A few reasons for why I think that is so: First, Imran Khan has made it his primary agenda — as evident from his speech on Tuesday — that holding these political leaders accountable for their crimes in the past is one of his primary goals. If that is true, and it certainly seems like it is, then Imran Khan has five years in power to not only get the job done but also make it permanent. Second, the current leadership of NAB is on his side and shares his enthusiasm for putting the old guard behind bars for good. A recent interview given by the NAB chairman all but confirmed this. Third, the Supreme Court’s interpretation of the disqualification provisions of the Constitution makes it likely that Nawaz and Zardari won’t be contesting elections again. Fourth, the establishment seems to have had enough with the old status quo, seeing in Imran Khan the sort of leader they now want to work with. And finally, the cases against Zardari and Nawaz are just hard to defend. While Nawaz may be acquitted in the Avenfield matter, Al Azizia seems much harder to dodge. And it is difficult, no matter how much Bilawal tries, to have sympathy for Zardari given the list of charges against him.
The old men are scattering like dust in the wind, the political landscape of Pakistan is changing. Pakistan’s political future will now be shaped by Imran, Bilawal and Maryam. All three have to think about the narratives they must build in order to survive.
For Bilawal and Maryam, one thing is certain: they can no longer be seen as part of the status quo of Pakistan’s politicians. Imran Khan’s power lies in his voter’s belief that he is there to eliminate the status quo which they now hold responsible for Pakistan’s problems. It is populism, it is dangerous, but for now, the people are eating it up. Any strategy for them going forward is to distance them from being seen as the status quo.
For Bilawal, the future lies in doing away with the baggage that is on his shoulders from his father’s alleged infamous legacy. Many still blame the PPP’s 2008-2013 term for Pakistan’s economic woes, and the tenure was both humiliating and inept, costing PPP seats in the 2013 and 2018 elections and relegating them to an interior Sindh party. Wherever Bilawal goes, his father’s alleged reputation as a swindler follows. Nicknames like Mr 10% don’t help.
Maryam has a different set of history she must purge. She must now construct a narrative of distancing the PML-N from a past in which it was the favourite of the very establishment it now vociferously tries to oppose. The PML-N is chained to its own past of dynastic politics (which sadly Bilawal and Maryam shall always remain personifications of), nepotism, and corruption.
Both Bilawal and Maryam must now reinvent.
They can no longer afford to be known as the parties of the status quo; they can no longer count on the old guard to take them forward. Maryam showed glimmers of reinvention when she harkened back recently to the Charter of Democracy, and the fight that both parties put together against a dictatorship. Reinvention requires both committing to the narrative that democracy may yet again be under threat. They must ask difficult questions: Why the NAB chairman is not going after members of the PTI even though he implies that their hands are just as dirty? Why Pemra is cracking down on satire, or why Faisal Vawda is openly supporting “the mob in place of the magistrate?” Most of all, they must break the PTI’s narrative that their parties are responsible for all the problems the country faces. The way to do that is to show that those problems aren’t getting better under the PTI.
But these words must be backed by action, legitimate protests and pressure on the government.
And Imran Khan? He cannot depend on populism bolstering his party forever. Sooner or later people will start to notice that the old guard is gone, yet things aren’t miraculously getting better. Then, they will turn their gaze towards the PTI. At that point the use of state resources to create high-powered commissions to investigate loans over the past ten years might be questioned. The merit of having people like Faisal Vawda and some others in the cabinet might be attacked.
Imran Khan wants to be the leader that shapes the destiny of Pakistan. He cannot do so by sitting idle while democratic principles are deteriorating. He cannot sit idle when Mr Vawda talks about subverting the constitution and hanging people in the streets. He cannot laze around while Pemra cracks down on free speech.
Each of these three leaders will have to now reinvent themselves. How far they are able to do so will determine the future of their political parties in Pakistan.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 21st, 2019.
NAB’s hammer has fallen on the old guard — those who have been the faces of Pakistan’s political circus for decades: Zardari, Nawaz, Shehbaz, Dar, Hamza. As more references are coming soon, it is hard to find a political opponent of Imran Khan who doesn’t have a criminal case pending against them. Even Altaf Hussain is facing the Scotland Yard these days.
Things are bleak for those who, for so long, had been the status quo of Pakistan’s politics. True, they have wriggled out of criminal cases before, and have even come back from jail to win massive electoral victories, but it doesn’t look like that particular part of history will be repeating itself this time around.
A few reasons for why I think that is so: First, Imran Khan has made it his primary agenda — as evident from his speech on Tuesday — that holding these political leaders accountable for their crimes in the past is one of his primary goals. If that is true, and it certainly seems like it is, then Imran Khan has five years in power to not only get the job done but also make it permanent. Second, the current leadership of NAB is on his side and shares his enthusiasm for putting the old guard behind bars for good. A recent interview given by the NAB chairman all but confirmed this. Third, the Supreme Court’s interpretation of the disqualification provisions of the Constitution makes it likely that Nawaz and Zardari won’t be contesting elections again. Fourth, the establishment seems to have had enough with the old status quo, seeing in Imran Khan the sort of leader they now want to work with. And finally, the cases against Zardari and Nawaz are just hard to defend. While Nawaz may be acquitted in the Avenfield matter, Al Azizia seems much harder to dodge. And it is difficult, no matter how much Bilawal tries, to have sympathy for Zardari given the list of charges against him.
The old men are scattering like dust in the wind, the political landscape of Pakistan is changing. Pakistan’s political future will now be shaped by Imran, Bilawal and Maryam. All three have to think about the narratives they must build in order to survive.
For Bilawal and Maryam, one thing is certain: they can no longer be seen as part of the status quo of Pakistan’s politicians. Imran Khan’s power lies in his voter’s belief that he is there to eliminate the status quo which they now hold responsible for Pakistan’s problems. It is populism, it is dangerous, but for now, the people are eating it up. Any strategy for them going forward is to distance them from being seen as the status quo.
For Bilawal, the future lies in doing away with the baggage that is on his shoulders from his father’s alleged infamous legacy. Many still blame the PPP’s 2008-2013 term for Pakistan’s economic woes, and the tenure was both humiliating and inept, costing PPP seats in the 2013 and 2018 elections and relegating them to an interior Sindh party. Wherever Bilawal goes, his father’s alleged reputation as a swindler follows. Nicknames like Mr 10% don’t help.
Maryam has a different set of history she must purge. She must now construct a narrative of distancing the PML-N from a past in which it was the favourite of the very establishment it now vociferously tries to oppose. The PML-N is chained to its own past of dynastic politics (which sadly Bilawal and Maryam shall always remain personifications of), nepotism, and corruption.
Both Bilawal and Maryam must now reinvent.
They can no longer afford to be known as the parties of the status quo; they can no longer count on the old guard to take them forward. Maryam showed glimmers of reinvention when she harkened back recently to the Charter of Democracy, and the fight that both parties put together against a dictatorship. Reinvention requires both committing to the narrative that democracy may yet again be under threat. They must ask difficult questions: Why the NAB chairman is not going after members of the PTI even though he implies that their hands are just as dirty? Why Pemra is cracking down on satire, or why Faisal Vawda is openly supporting “the mob in place of the magistrate?” Most of all, they must break the PTI’s narrative that their parties are responsible for all the problems the country faces. The way to do that is to show that those problems aren’t getting better under the PTI.
But these words must be backed by action, legitimate protests and pressure on the government.
And Imran Khan? He cannot depend on populism bolstering his party forever. Sooner or later people will start to notice that the old guard is gone, yet things aren’t miraculously getting better. Then, they will turn their gaze towards the PTI. At that point the use of state resources to create high-powered commissions to investigate loans over the past ten years might be questioned. The merit of having people like Faisal Vawda and some others in the cabinet might be attacked.
Imran Khan wants to be the leader that shapes the destiny of Pakistan. He cannot do so by sitting idle while democratic principles are deteriorating. He cannot sit idle when Mr Vawda talks about subverting the constitution and hanging people in the streets. He cannot laze around while Pemra cracks down on free speech.
Each of these three leaders will have to now reinvent themselves. How far they are able to do so will determine the future of their political parties in Pakistan.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 21st, 2019.