Modi man-goes and changing context
With only two phases to go, Indian election process has opened an interesting chapter
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. PHOTO: FILE
Narendra Modi recently gave an interview to an Indian film actor. The ostensible purpose was to offer an apolitical look into the life of India’s premier. But since the interview came right in the middle of the election season, it became a political tragedy of errors. I would have called it a comedy if this was even remotely funny anymore. One embarrassing moment came when the interviewer wanted to know if the Prime Minister ate mangoes and if yes, how he preferred to eat them. In South Asia, a common practice is to soften a mango by squeezing it, poke a hole and suck the pulp with your mouth. For some reason, the interviewer avoided the word commonly used for the process. But soon the clip was a butt of a million online jokes and memes. Brave Indian journalist and talk show host Ravish Kumar even dedicated an entire episode of his show, titled an ‘Apolitical Primetime Show’ to the incident.
With only two phases to go, Indian election process has opened an interesting chapter. Modi who once seemed invincible can often be seen wincing on stage when he chooses not to scowl. Of course, the arithmetic of Indian general election is so complicated that in the absence of exit poll data, it is almost impossible to predict the outcome. Caste, creed, colour, province, language and class all play important part in the process. But if body language was an indicator, Modi’s irritable manner would suggest that he was not winning and his public attacks on his main rival Rahul Gandhi’s late father would imply that Gandhi was likely to be the next premier. As the situation develops, more contenders have emerged: Mamata Banerjee, the ever so brave and likable Chief Minister of Bengal; Chief Minister of Telangana K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR); and Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav of UP. But the proverbial stab in the back came from Modi’s own cabinet Minister Nitin Gadkari and his mentor RSS. Even before the election began, RSS affiliates were openly discussing if Gadkari, a relatively better educated and richer man, could replace Modi, in case of a weaker mandate. Since then Ram Madhav, the BJP’s secretary general and an RSS ideologue, has already suggested that the party may not get the required seats on its own.
So what happened? Despite Mr Modi’s valiant attempts to shift attention away from his abysmal economic performance by setting Pakistan up as some kind of a patsy, the widespread economic distress has dominated the voter’s mind. Not only is Modi’s government awful in economics, some of its steps like demonetisation and poorly calibrated goods and services tax border on being suicidal. The informal sector and the small and medium enterprises have been destroyed. There is incredible farmer distress, including in BJP-ruled states like UP, not just because of low commodity prices or natural disasters but because of man-made ones like letting cattle, mainly cows, roam free and destroy crops like pests. And unlike pests you cannot do anything about it or within minutes cow vigilantes would be breathing down your necks. It is a government which chooses to appoint a lawyer as the finance minister of such a big economy and let one of the finest economic minds of our times, Dr Raghuram Rajan, go from the post of the head of Reserve Bank of India. If ineptness was not enough, corruption in Rafale deal seems to have done it. Gandhi has seized the opportunity and introduced NYAY, a brilliant re-monetisation campaign promise.
But it is the macroeconomic picture that is really frightening. When India decided to open up its market back in 1990s, its sheer volume meant that foreign investment would come. But a market is as good as its consumers. Herd instinct brought a lot of foreign capital and credit to the country and a lot of it went to wasteful projects. As a result, there is a teetering pile of non-performing assets (NPAs) which threaten to collapse anytime taking much of the regional perhaps global economy with it. And here is the kicker. India, since the end of the cold war had made it a point of flirting with the West and China simultaneously. While it has toyed with the idea of the new cold war between China and the US, to gain maximum benefits from the West of course, it had always stopped short of taking things to the breaking point knowing the true nature of the integrated world economy. Modi’s defensive offence-in-chief Ajit Doval, being bereft of economic insight, has taken the propaganda to a level where the new cold war seems a distinct possibility. As new battle lines are being drawn, American liquidity has returned to the US and China’s is back to its source, making India’s cash-starved economy and unfolding NPA crisis more ominous. And the IMF could help but as its India-born chief economist implied New Delhi would have to first stop lying about its growth numbers. Meanwhile, too much of ill-directed political testosterone threatens to demolish regional stability on its own.
In neighbouring Pakistan, there are two schools of thought that would want to see Modi return to singhaassan. Those who genuinely believe that only a strongman in New Delhi could build peace between the two countries. Sadly, they are not fully appreciative of Modi government’s economic incompetence or its readiness to use confrontation with Pakistan as a welcome diversion. The second group would like to see India being burnt down to the ground by Modi. Not a wise course because the sheer volume of Indian market means if it sinks it will most certainly take the region with it.
What India needs right now is some serious damage control. Someone like Dr Rajan as India’s next finance minister, who sees the problem, might be able to do the trick. Actually, let me come out and say that he is the man best suited for the position. The second step is an aggressive dismantling of the defensive offence enterprise.
But what will happen to Pakistan, and China’s growing influence in the region? Well, as I have been advocating for the past 20 years, change the context. Kautilya has no place in this economic century. Shared economic equities can build new alliances. It is where instead of being jealous neighbours, India and Pakistan can be true allies. And India, China too. India, China, America, Russia, Japan, Pakistan, the entire region and even the entire world can work in tandem. It is up to us to try. India-Pakistan rivalry only brings out the worst in us. All we need to do is to come to terms with each other’s existence. It can be done. Border disputes can also be settled. And soon there will be no space left for the worst elements to thrive. There is no dearth of challenges facing all of us. Time has come to take a chance on lasting peace.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 11th, 2019.
With only two phases to go, Indian election process has opened an interesting chapter. Modi who once seemed invincible can often be seen wincing on stage when he chooses not to scowl. Of course, the arithmetic of Indian general election is so complicated that in the absence of exit poll data, it is almost impossible to predict the outcome. Caste, creed, colour, province, language and class all play important part in the process. But if body language was an indicator, Modi’s irritable manner would suggest that he was not winning and his public attacks on his main rival Rahul Gandhi’s late father would imply that Gandhi was likely to be the next premier. As the situation develops, more contenders have emerged: Mamata Banerjee, the ever so brave and likable Chief Minister of Bengal; Chief Minister of Telangana K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR); and Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav of UP. But the proverbial stab in the back came from Modi’s own cabinet Minister Nitin Gadkari and his mentor RSS. Even before the election began, RSS affiliates were openly discussing if Gadkari, a relatively better educated and richer man, could replace Modi, in case of a weaker mandate. Since then Ram Madhav, the BJP’s secretary general and an RSS ideologue, has already suggested that the party may not get the required seats on its own.
So what happened? Despite Mr Modi’s valiant attempts to shift attention away from his abysmal economic performance by setting Pakistan up as some kind of a patsy, the widespread economic distress has dominated the voter’s mind. Not only is Modi’s government awful in economics, some of its steps like demonetisation and poorly calibrated goods and services tax border on being suicidal. The informal sector and the small and medium enterprises have been destroyed. There is incredible farmer distress, including in BJP-ruled states like UP, not just because of low commodity prices or natural disasters but because of man-made ones like letting cattle, mainly cows, roam free and destroy crops like pests. And unlike pests you cannot do anything about it or within minutes cow vigilantes would be breathing down your necks. It is a government which chooses to appoint a lawyer as the finance minister of such a big economy and let one of the finest economic minds of our times, Dr Raghuram Rajan, go from the post of the head of Reserve Bank of India. If ineptness was not enough, corruption in Rafale deal seems to have done it. Gandhi has seized the opportunity and introduced NYAY, a brilliant re-monetisation campaign promise.
But it is the macroeconomic picture that is really frightening. When India decided to open up its market back in 1990s, its sheer volume meant that foreign investment would come. But a market is as good as its consumers. Herd instinct brought a lot of foreign capital and credit to the country and a lot of it went to wasteful projects. As a result, there is a teetering pile of non-performing assets (NPAs) which threaten to collapse anytime taking much of the regional perhaps global economy with it. And here is the kicker. India, since the end of the cold war had made it a point of flirting with the West and China simultaneously. While it has toyed with the idea of the new cold war between China and the US, to gain maximum benefits from the West of course, it had always stopped short of taking things to the breaking point knowing the true nature of the integrated world economy. Modi’s defensive offence-in-chief Ajit Doval, being bereft of economic insight, has taken the propaganda to a level where the new cold war seems a distinct possibility. As new battle lines are being drawn, American liquidity has returned to the US and China’s is back to its source, making India’s cash-starved economy and unfolding NPA crisis more ominous. And the IMF could help but as its India-born chief economist implied New Delhi would have to first stop lying about its growth numbers. Meanwhile, too much of ill-directed political testosterone threatens to demolish regional stability on its own.
In neighbouring Pakistan, there are two schools of thought that would want to see Modi return to singhaassan. Those who genuinely believe that only a strongman in New Delhi could build peace between the two countries. Sadly, they are not fully appreciative of Modi government’s economic incompetence or its readiness to use confrontation with Pakistan as a welcome diversion. The second group would like to see India being burnt down to the ground by Modi. Not a wise course because the sheer volume of Indian market means if it sinks it will most certainly take the region with it.
What India needs right now is some serious damage control. Someone like Dr Rajan as India’s next finance minister, who sees the problem, might be able to do the trick. Actually, let me come out and say that he is the man best suited for the position. The second step is an aggressive dismantling of the defensive offence enterprise.
But what will happen to Pakistan, and China’s growing influence in the region? Well, as I have been advocating for the past 20 years, change the context. Kautilya has no place in this economic century. Shared economic equities can build new alliances. It is where instead of being jealous neighbours, India and Pakistan can be true allies. And India, China too. India, China, America, Russia, Japan, Pakistan, the entire region and even the entire world can work in tandem. It is up to us to try. India-Pakistan rivalry only brings out the worst in us. All we need to do is to come to terms with each other’s existence. It can be done. Border disputes can also be settled. And soon there will be no space left for the worst elements to thrive. There is no dearth of challenges facing all of us. Time has come to take a chance on lasting peace.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 11th, 2019.