An alternate history

Operation Cyclone was the longest and most expensive CIA covert operation. It supplied military equipment, including anti-aircraft weapons, and paramilitary officers to the Afghan Mujahideen during the Soviet war in Afghanistan. Zbigniew Brzezinski, security adviser to the then US president Jimmy Carter, was asked in an interview if he regretted having supported Islamic fundamentalism and providing arms to future terrorists. He replied, “What is most important to the history of the world? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire? Some stirred-up Muslims or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the Cold War?” Let’s consider these questions and imagine how history could have played out differently.

The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan did contribute to the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union. However, there were various other causes behind the disintegration of the Soviet Union, ranging from the poor state of the economy to political reforms. Mikhail Gorbachev introduced two main policies for reform, glasnost and perestroika, which created political instability and led to the eventual dissolution of the Union in December 1991. The Soviet Union may very well have disintegrated, albeit at a slower rate, without the costly invasion of Afghanistan.

In another scenario, we can contemplate what would have happened if the US had followed up their successful intelligence operations with an equally concerted effort in redevelopment of the region. Ideally, the result would have been vastly different. This would have also eased Pakistan’s burden of five million Afghan refugees, many of whom still live there. The creation of the Taliban and al Qaeda could have been prevented as well. The Taliban movement developed and formed from Afghan orphans or refugees who were forced by the Soviets to flee their country and escape into Pakistan. Generous Saudi donations led to a sudden growth of madrassas during the Afghan jihad against the Soviets. The Taliban’s instant rise to power was the outcome of the chaos and civil war that followed the complete breakdown of law and order in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the Soviet army. The CIA made a historic mistake by feeding the beast of extremism and then turning a blind eye.

Another possible outcome could have resulted from the success of America’s greatest fear at the time, the spread of communism throughout Afghanistan. The People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan was a communist party which relied on the Soviet Union for economic support. It came into power after a violent coup in 1978 and established the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA). One of its key goals was to encourage atheism in the state. Many Afghans believed the West was trying to push secular values on their culture. Eventually resentment set in and the government faced severe reaction from the tribal communities and Islamic leaders, which ultimately led to the Soviet troops entering Afghanistan. But what if the DRA had been successful? In 1978, the Soviets built infrastructure in Afghanistan and provided the country with aid and weapons and mandated universal education for both men and women. The Soviets might have used similar tactics to encourage Pakistan and other neighbouring countries to join the communist movement as well.

The US justified its support of the Mujahideen by claiming that the end of the USSR was for the benefit of the world. Nonetheless, what would have happened if the US had not got involved when the Soviets invaded? The Mujahideen might have continued in a pathetic state from Pakistan, hurling sporadic attacks against the Russians. Afghanistan might have been a semi-failed Soviet satellite state, rather than the dysfunctional, collapsed country it has become. On the other hand, without the threat of stinger missiles, the Russians might have been able to annihilate the entire Afghan population with their superior weapons technology. An Afghanistan without Operation Cyclone could have had too many different outcomes and it is impetuous to assume that all other alternatives would be worse than the present situation.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 25^th, 2011.