The impact of US elections

The world watches as Trump and Kamala face off in a close US election, each with distinct policies on trade.

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The world has been watching the American presidential election with keen interest. It is not surprising as the policies that the US President pursues and the actions that he takes on domestic and international issues directly or indirectly influence the world order. The main features of Donald Trump's domestic policies are likely to be as articulated by him in his speeches during the election campaign and also drawn from his earlier experience as President from 2016 to 2020.

Trump has expressed his intent to increase tariffs bringing prices of imported goods close to the same as produced in the US, thereby discouraging Americans to buy imported products. The apprehension is that protectionism in the long term will promote inefficiency and seriously impact on global trade.

Trump's proposal to introduce major tax cuts will primarily benefit the rich Americans and the national deficit will keep on accumulating. This has its own drawbacks. Trump does not have a convincing answer to these valid concerns. More so, this policy is against the basic concept of free trade and democratic values.

On immigration Trump wants to exercise strict control over the border to discourage inflow of illegal immigrants especially from South America. He is openly opposed to Muslim migrants. Despite this, there are several influential Muslim groups that are supporting Trump in the elections due to his economic and foreign policies. The onus of any religious group being considered as an important and influential player would largely depend on its numerical strength and the political clout and economic strength that it possesses. It is therefore not surprising that the Jewish community due to its financial and economic power wields considerable political influence in the US and Western countries.

During her presidential campaign, Kamala Harris has announced several tax incentives to make her economic and monetary policies more attractive. She proposes introducing the Child Tax Credit bill that will make it easier to start families. Trump does not have a policy on this issue and if elected the status quo is likely to continue. Kamala wants to target small businesses overseas and middle incomes groups. And only increase marginal taxes for wealthy Americans. These economic policies seem largely influenced by the rich political elite. How these would impact the majority of Americans and what will be their response may be indicated in the next elections.

Interestingly, Kamala wants to expand the process of immigration at the border by providing more resources and funding. In a way she is encouraging immigration. It is not surprising considering her own family background. Besides, economic support this policy has a human and moralistic angle to it, as opposed to the existing status quo.

In foreign policy Kamala is likely to continue with the Biden administration's alliances that are stable and robust and serve US interests. Moreover, having been the Vice President during Biden's administration, Kamala has been closely associated with foreign policy. She is expected to continue support of Ukraine to counter Russia's perceived expansionist designs. Trump seems less inclined towards boosting ties with Ukraine and it is not surprising that Russia would be more at ease with him than with Kamala as President.

With China which is the most important economic relationship probably the status quo will continue. Bilateral trade and economic linkages with it are mutually beneficial and there are no suitable alternative choices. Trump is more focused on domestic and economic issues and is expected to reduce imports from China by promoting production within country and increase exports to it, whilst protecting strategic technologies and knowhow. It will not be that easy to reduce imports from China. Apart from the time that it would take to build the indigenous capacity to ensure that price of US products remain competitive will remain a challenge.

China will be closely watching the US election and apart from congratulating the winner is likely to wait to see how the US President will relate to it.

Pakistan's expectations are modest. Probably it will be a continuation of the existing US policy with minor changes, if any. The focus will be on the regional security situation especially the conditions in Afghanistan and state of relations between India and Pakistan.

Kamala would try to increase trade and commerce with India and also deepen political and strategic linkages. To what extent her personal bonds and association with India influences her policies would be closely watched.

In the Middle East robust financial and diplomatic support to Israel will continue. Both Trump and Kamala would be promoting Israel's interests in the UN, its affiliates and other global organisations. This will encourage and further harden Israel's hostile policies towards Hamas and Hezbollah and increase the sufferings of Muslims who stayed over in Gaza.

What is rather disquieting that apart from Iran, no Muslim country is speaking and taking a hard position against Israel's inhuman and barbaric policies. Pakistan has raised the specter of Israel atrocities at global forums. But Israel, overconfident due to unflinching US support, is callous to the concerns and condemnation by Muslim and other countries.

As I write this column, voting across the US is to begin within hours. With both the candidates running neck to neck, the swing states seem to be pivotal in determining the final outcome of the elections. Both candidates urge their supporters to vote. NPR and other national polls indicate Kamala having an edge over Trump by a small percentage. Policy on abortion seems to be a key factor in some states in determining the choice of President. This shows how close is the race and one policy issue with a personal angle seems to tilt the outcome of elections. It also reflects that both candidates have a common agenda with a few differences. So, the voter is mainly influenced by ideological leanings, the competence and reputation of the party in governance and personal affinity, if any, to a candidate.

For a few weeks the world will be intensely focused on the developments in the US as no country's happenings influence the world as it does.