Looking back: 10% more rains likely this monsoon, warn experts

The water levels have already risen in the Tarbela.

SUKKUR:

Ten per cent more rain is expected and thus barrage engineers are bracing for more water to flow through Sindh’s barrages this monsoon. As it is, water levels in the reservoirs are already higher than those of last year when the devastating flood hit.

In the villages, there is a certain measure of panic as it will still take a month to plug all of the 41 breaches in the bunds and canals that developed last year.

Last year too, the province was taken by surprise by the sudden influx of water. Till mid-July 2010 Sindh and Balochistan were accusing the Punjab of stealing their share of water through the Chesma-Jhelum link canal. Each day protests were being staged throughout Sindh by peasants, decrying the acute shortage of irrigation water. But in the last week of the month, heavy downpours started in Kabul and Nowshera with melting ice adding to its volume. Shortly after, the Indus swelled and flooded its embankments.

According to the irrigation experts, if the monsoon rains this year are normal — not more than 0.6 million cusecs — then the situation will be under control in Sindh. But, if the meteorological office’s forecast is to be believed, 10 per cent more rains could lead to more devastation.

Irrigation experts said they can gauge the water coming into the Indus from Kabul and the glaciers, but they have no way of measuring the volume of water in the form of hill torrents from the Koh-e-Suleman range in southern Punjab near Dera Ghazi Khan.

Tarbela Dam

Pond level: 1,379 feet

Dead level: 1,378 ft

Rise of 1 foot

Inflow: 121,000 cusecs

Outflow: 115,000 cusecs

Mangla Dam

Pond level: 1,157 feet

Dead level: 1,040 feet

Rise of 117 feet

Inflow: 52,000 cusecs

Outflow: 55,000 cusecs

Water released at barrages

Guddu Barrage

Upstream: 104,000 cusecs

Downstream: 82,000 cusecs

Sukkur Barrage

Upstream: 73,100 cusecs

Downstream: 30,000 cusecs

Kotri Barrage

Upstream: 19,000 cusecs

Downstream: No water

Tarbela Dam

Pond level: 1,418.4 feet

Dead level: 1,378 ft

Rise of 40.4 feet

Inflow: 157,100 cusecs

Outflow: 145,000 cusecs

Mangla Dam

Pond level: 1,165 feet

Dead level: 1,040 feet

Rise of 125 feet

Inflow: 42,700 cusecs

Outflow: 40,000 cusecs

Water released at barrages

Guddu Barrage

Upstream: 124,100 cusecs

Downstream: 100,000 cusecs

Sukkur Barrage

Upstream: 98,000 cusecs

Downstream: 50,400 cusecs

Kotri Barrage

Upstream: 38,800 cusecs

Downstream: 9,100 cusecs

Published in The Express Tribune, June 19th, 2011.